Marlins vs Red Sox Prediction 8/15/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Marlins vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Friday, August 15th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 58-63 this season after they lost two out of three against Cleveland by scores of 3-4, 13-4, and 4-9. In their game three loss, Miami led 3-0 in the first and 4-3 in the fourth, but they allowed the last six runs for the tough loss. The Marlins recorded seven hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Ramirez and Hernandez, who both had one RBI in the loss. Miami started Cabrera, who allowed seven hits and five earned runs over 5.1 innings for the loss, while Bellozo allowed two earned runs in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Marlins lost four out of five against the Braves and two out of three against the Astros. Miami has lost eight of their last eleven games and they are currently third in the NL East standings. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.56 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .250 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 525 runs with a .252 batting average and a .316 on base percentage this season. Kyle Stowers has led Miami with 25 home runs and 72 RBIs, while Agustin Ramirez has added 17 home runs and 55 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Sandy Alcantara, who is 6-11 with a 6.55 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP over 121.0 innings pitched this season. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 66-56 this year after they lost two out of three against Houston by scores of 6-7, 14-1, and 1-4. In their game three loss, Boston cut the deficit to 2-1 in the second inning, but couldn’t score over the last seven innings for the loss. The Red Sox recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Rafaela, who went 1-4 with one RBI in the loss. Boston started Buehler, who allowed four hits and four earned runs over 6.0 innings for the loss, while Matz and Weissert combined for 2.0 scoreless innings in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the Padres, but did win two out of three against the Royals before that. Boston has lost four of their last five games and they are currently second in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.75 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 614 runs with a .254 batting average and a .325 on base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu has led Boston with 21 home runs and 67 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 18 home runs and 75 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Lucas Giolito, who is 8-2 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 100.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Marlins

• The Marlins have lost 12 of their last 13 night games against the Red Sox following a loss.
• The Red Sox have won 17 of their last 19 night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games at Fenway Park against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last eight night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight Friday night games as road underdogs.

Why the Marlins will beat the Red Sox

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last seven Friday night games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The road team has won each of the last six games between the Marlins and Red Sox.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Friday night games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in 11 of their last 12 games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against AL East opponents.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in three of their last four night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Red Sox’s last nine games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Marlins’ last seven night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last five games against American League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Lucas Giolito has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances at Fenway Park.
• Jarren Duran has recorded a Double in four of the Red Sox’s last five night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Alex Bregman has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last two games as favorites.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his 12 previous appearances with his team as a home favorite against the Marlins.
• Lucas Giolito has recorded five or more strikeouts in 14 of his last 15 home appearances against NL opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in three of the Marlins’ last four games against AL East opponents.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last nine Friday games.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded five or more strikeouts in 11 of his last 12 appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.

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Marlins vs Red Sox Prediction 

Boston had plenty of momentum about a week ago and they were gaining ground on Toronto, but they have lost two series in a row. The Red Sox are 39-22 at home this year, while the Marlins are 30-32 on the road. Miami has allowed at least seven runs in three of their last five games and they are starting Alcantara, who has allowed 11 earned runs and 16 hits in his last 12.0 innings. Boston is starting Giolito, who has allowed 4, 1, 1, 5, and 4 earned runs in his last five outings. I think we are going to see plenty of offense in this game, so I like the over here.