Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction 4/13/25 MLB Picks

The Kansas City Royals and the Cleveland Guardians meet Sunday in MLB action from Progressive Field. This will be the final installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Royals vs Guardians prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Royals vs Guardians pick. We will examine: 

The Kansas City Royals recent form and player performance

The Cleveland Guardians recent form and player performance 

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Kansas City Royals

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cleveland Guardians

Recent betting trends in games played between the Royals and Guardians

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Royals vs Guardians game

Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Royals lost two of three games to the Guardians in their first series of 2025, then lost two of three to the Milwaukee Brewers. Kansas City managed a series win over the Baltimore Orioles with victories in two of three during their next set. This week the Royals took another series, this time bagging wins in three of four versus the Minnesota Twins. On Friday versus the Guardians, the Royals gave up three runs in the fourth inning and four more in the eighth for a 7-0 blowout defeat. Kris Bubic went 6.0 frames with two earned on six hits and two walks as starting pitcher. 

On Saturday Kansas City scored twice in the top of the ninth inning but couldn’t make the comeback in a 6-3 loss. Vinnie Pasquantino led the way on three hits, two runs and a solo homer. Starter Michael Lorenzen lasted 5.2 innings with three earned runs on seven hits and a walk. 

For the starter slot in the Sunday game, the Royals will send out Cole Ragans. So far this year Ragans doesn’t have a decision through three starts, notching a 2.81 ERA in 16.0 innings. Ragans is 18-17 with a 3.43 ERA in 73 career games (56 starts). 

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview 

Over on the Guardians’ side, they got wins 7-4 and 6-2 in that opening set versus Kansas City. Cleveland took a sweep at the hands of the San Diego Padres in the next series, then lost two of three to the Los Angeles Angels. The Guardians were able to bag a sweep over the Chicago White Sox this past week, though. In Friday’s game Cleveland got a combined six hits, one run and four RBI from Gabriel Arias and Angel Martinez.  Starter Tanner Bibee posted 4.2 clean frames with three hits and four walks. 

On Saturday the Guardians got two hits, two runs, two RBI and a homer from Gabriel Arias. Angel Martinez added two hits and two RBI. Luis Ortiz went 5.2 frames as starter with one earned on one hit and two walks alongside 10 Ks. 

It’ll be Ben Lively in the starter slot for Cleveland on Sunday. So far this year through three starts Lively is 0-1 with a 4.40 ERA in 14.1 frames total. Lively is 21-28 with a 4.52 ERA in 77 career games (64 starts). 

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Guardians have won each of their last seven games at Progressive Field against teams that held a losing record.
• The Royals have lost each of their last four road games after playing the previous day.
• The Royals have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 games against AL Central opponents.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Royals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Kansas City Royals will win

• The Royals have won each of their last seven games as road favorites.
• The Guardians have lost seven of their last eight games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Royals have covered the run line in six of their last seven road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games at Progressive Field against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Royals’ last four games as favorites against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the last five games between the Royals and Guardians at Progressive Field have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Guardians’ last 11 games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Royals’ last four games as road favorites against AL Central opponents.

Royals vs Guardians Prediction 

I’ll stick with the Guardians. We should have a good pitching matchup here, though. Lively didn’t start out the year so great with seven earned over 9.1 innings across his first two starts. That said, Lively is coming off 5.0 clean frames with two hits and three walks in a no-decision versus the White Sox. As for Ragans, he’s got just two earned over 11.0 innings on nine hits and two walks across his last two starts. 

Cleveland posted nine team hits in the Saturday win, spreading their offense out across four separate innings. Emmanuel Clase (two earned in one inning) gave up some damage late but overall the bullpen was solid. I like the Guardians to keep it going in the finale.