Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Prediction 9/7/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate an Astros vs Rangers Prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 7th at the Globe Life Field in the third game of this series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Texas Rangers Preview

The Texas Rangers have a 73-70 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the AL West. The Rangers have a 43-28 home record and are 63-77 in over/under. They are coming off a 0-11 home defeat by the Astros, and are 1-3 in their last 4 games. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 games and are playing the Brewers and the Mets next.

The Rangers have a .237 batting average this season, .306 OBP and .387 slugging percentage. Texas’ pitching staff has a 3.47 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.  Josh Smith leads the Rangers with 115 hits, while Adolis Garcia leads the team in RBI, with 73. Corey Seager is the team’s best hitter with a .271 batting average, adding a team-high 21 home runs.

Patrick Corbin (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rangers, and he has a 7-9 record, 4.48 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 78-65 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the AL West. The Astros have a 35-33 road record and 66-71 in over/under. They are coming off a 11-0 road victory over the Rangers, that ended their two-game losing streak. Over is 5-1 in their last 6 games and are playing the Blue Jays and the Braves next.

The Astros have a .253 batting average this season, .319 OBP and .402 slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Jose Altuve leads the Astros with 142 hits, adding a team-high 24 home runs. Jeremy Pena is the team’s best hitter with a .304 batting average, while Christian Walker leads the team in RBI with 76. 

Framber Valdez (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, and he has a 12-8 record, 3.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers Betting Trends: September 7, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Patrick Corbin      Record this season: 7-9      ERA: 4.48
• Home Record: 3-4
• Last 5 against Astros: 1-3

Why the Texas Rangers will win

• The Rangers have won each of their last six home games against AL West opponents following a loss.
• The Astros have lost nine of their last 11 games as favorites against American League opponents following a win.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 Sunday games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last six games between the Astros and Rangers.
• The Rangers have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight day games against AL West opponents.
• The Rangers have led after 3 innings in five of their last six day games against AL West opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Framber Valdez      Record this season: 12-8      ERA: 3.40
• Road Record: 6-5
• Last 5 against Rangers: 2-2

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won seven of their last eight road games against the Rangers following a road win.
• The Rangers have lost each of their last seven games as home underdogs against the Astros following a home loss.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last six road games.
• The Rangers have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 home games against the Astros following a loss.
• The Rangers have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games as underdogs.
• The Rangers have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Astros’ last four games as road favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Rangers’ last five day games against AL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last nine games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Rangers’ last 11 day games against American League opponents.

Texas Rangers Player Prop Facts

• Patrick Corbin has recorded four or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances against AL West opponents.
• Josh Jung has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 appearances against AL West opponents.
• Adolis Garcia has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four home appearances.
• Corey Seager has hit a home run in four of his last five home appearances against AL West opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Jose Altuve has recorded a Double in three of the Astros’ last four road games against AL West opponents.
• Yordan Alvarez has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against the Rangers.
• Framber Valdez has recorded a win in each of his last four road appearances against the Rangers.
• Framber Valdez has recorded six or more strikeouts in nine of his last 11 appearances with the Astros as favorites against the Rangers.
• Jake Meyers has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 17 road appearances against AL opponents.
• Jeremy Pena ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.304) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rangers rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.47).
• The Rangers rank 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (530).
• The Astros rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1360).
• The Astros rank 26th in the league for triples this season (12).

Astros vs Rangers Prediction

Both teams are tied 5-5 wins in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, but the Astros are 5-3 in their last 8 visits in Texas. Under is 4-2 in their last 6 meetings in Texas.

In this Astros vs Rangers Prediction, the Astros are coming as -135 road favorites. I don’t trust either pitcher, as Corbin is starting to look like last season’s Corbin, having given up 4+ runs in three of his last four starts. On the flip side, Valdez has been weaker on the road, with a 4.74 road ERA, and he is coming into this matchup in poor form, with a 1-4 record and 6.14 ERA Across his last 5 starts. With the total set at 8 runs, and yesterday’s game having 11 total runs, I will go over that number today.