Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Prediction 5/18/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Houston Astros and the Minnesota Twins meet Monday in MLB action from Target Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Houston Astros will send out Tatsuya Imai here and Imai is 1-1 with a 9.24 ERA and 16 strikeouts this season. This will be Imai’s first career start against the Twins. Kendry Rojas will start here for Minnesota is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 8 strikeouts this season. This will be Rojas’ first career start against the Astros.

Houston Astros Recap

The Houston Astros come into this game looking to bounce back from an 8-0 loss at the hands of Texas last time out to sit at 19-29 this season. After this series, the Astros will head on the road for a series against the Chicago Cubs.

Astros Have Two-Game Win Streak Snapped

Yordan Alvarez has 55 hits with 11 doubles, 15 home runs and 31 RBIs while Christian Walker has 45 hits with 10 doubles, 11 home runs and 30 RBIs on the year. Jose Altuve’s chipped in 40 hits with 10 doubles, 4 home runs and 12 RBIs and Carlos Correa has 34 hits with 8 doubles, 3 home runs and 16 RBIs. Cam Smith also has 30 hits with 6 doubles, 4 home runs and 17 RBIs. Yainer Diaz also has 24 hits with 5 doubles, 2 home runs and 14 RBIs.

Minnesota Twins Recap

The Minnesota Twins come into this game looking to add on to their 5-4 win over Milwaukee last time out to sit at 21-26 this season. After this series, the Twins will head on the road for a series against the Boston Red Sox.

Twins Snap Two-Game Skid

Byron Buxton has 44 hits with 7 doubles, a triple, 15 home runs and 23 RBIs while Josh Bell’s added 34 hits with 8 doubles, 3 home runs and 24 RBIs. Luke Keaschall has 38 hits with 8 doubles, a homer and 15 RBIs and Matt Wallner has 20 hits with 3 doubles, 4 home runs and 10 RBIs. Brooks Lee has 5 home runs with 24 RBIs and Victor Caratini has 15 RBIs while Ryan Jeffers has 35 hits with 6 doubles, a triple, 7 home runs and 26 RBIs this season.

Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins Betting Trends: May 18, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Kendry Rojas      Record this season: 1-0      ERA: 2.45
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Astros: –

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Astros have lost six of their last seven night games against AL Central opponents.
• The home team has won four of the last five games between the Astros and Twins.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Twins have covered the run line in each of their last five Monday night games.
• The Twins have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Twins have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine night games at Target Field against American League opponents.
• The Astros have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Tatsuya Imai      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 9.24
• Road Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Twins: –

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Twins have lost 13 of their last 14 games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Astros have won five of their last six games as underdogs following a home loss.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against the Twins following a loss.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in 13 of their last 14 games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Twins have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games as favorites against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Astros’ last seven night games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Twins’ last six games as favorites against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Twins’ last 10 home games against AL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of Lance McCullers Jr.’s last six appearances as a starter.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Byron Buxton has hit at least one home run in each of the Twins’ last six night games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Trevor Larnach has recorded at least one hit in 17 of his last 18 home appearances against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• Byron Buxton ranks T4th in the league in Home Runs (15) this season.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Christian Walker has hit a home run in two of his last three road appearances against the Twins after playing the previous day.
• Jose Altuve has recorded a hit in each of his last seven road appearances.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.423) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Twins rank 26th in the league for strikeouts this season (354).
• The Twins rank 7th in the league for runs scored this season (219).
• The Astros rank 30th in the league for ERA this season (5.43).
• The Astros rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (242).

Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction

I’m on the Astros in this one. I’m not sure what to make of the Twins as this team continues to be wildly inconsistent and I think that the Astros actually have the pitching edge here even though Imai hasn’t been great in his first tour of the Major Leagues. The Twins just run so hot and cold and at this price I have to take a shot on the Astros.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Houston -105