Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins Prediction 08/06/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Houston Astros and the Miami Marlins meet Wednesday in MLB action from LoanDepot Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Houston Astros will send out Spencer Arrighetti for the start here and Arrighetti is 1-1 with a 5.59 ERA and 8 strikeouts this season. This will be Arrighetti’s first career start against Miami. The Miami Marlins will trot out Janson Junk here and Junk is 5-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 48 strikeouts this season. This will be Junk’s second career start against Houston.

Houston Astros Recap

The Houston Astros come into this game looking to add on to their 7-3 win over the Marlins from Tuesday’s matchup to sit at 64-50 on the year. After this series, the Astros will head on the road for a series against the New York Yankees.

Astros Looking For Sweep

Jose Altuve has 119 hits including 17 doubles, 19 home runs and 59 RBIs. Jeremy Pena also has 108 hits with 20 doubles, 11 homers and 43 RBIs with 15 stolen bases as well. Jake Meyers has 15 doubles as well and Christian Walker has 15 home runs and 59 RBIs but has also accrued a team-high 119 strikeouts so far this season. Altuve also has 7 stolen bases while Jake Meyers has 14 stolen bases this season. Isaac Paredes also has a team-high 19 home runs with 50 RBIs of his own and Cam Smith has contributed 7 homers and 46 RBIs.

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won each of their last eight road games against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last six games against the Astros following a loss.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last eight road games against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against the Astros following a loss.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Yainer Diaz has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last three games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four road appearances against NL opponents.
• Brendan Rodgers has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances in day games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Jeremy Pena ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.322) this season.

Miami Marlins Recap

The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss at the hands of Houston on Tuesday to sit at 55-57 this season. After this series, the Marlins will head on the road for a series against the Atlanta Braves.

Marlins Drop Back-To-Back Games

Xavier Edwards has 113 hits including 18 doubles and a team-high 17 stolen bases while Eric Wagaman has 84 hits with 21 doubles. Otto Lopez has 84 hits with 14 doubles and 11 home runs with 55 RBIs. Kyle Stowers has 106 hits with 18 doubles, 3 triples, 25 home runs and 71 RBIs but also has 116 strikeouts so far this season. Agustin Ramirez also has 17 home runs, 24 doubles and 50 RBIs on the year.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won five of their last six games as underdogs following a home loss.
• The Astros have lost 13 of their last 18 games as favorites.
• The Marlins have covered the run line each of their last 11 day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in 14 of their last 18 games as favorites.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Stowers has hit a home run in two of the Marlins’ last three games as underdogs.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded at least one hit in each of his five previous appearances in day games against AL West teams that held a winning record.
• Kyle Stowers ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.566) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Astros’ last four games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Marlins’ last four games as underdogs against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.

Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins Prediction

I’m on the over in this one. It’ll be interesting to see how Arrighetti fares in his first start back at the major league level since April, and while Arrighetti had glimpses of brightness last season, he also got hit in spots and the Marlins are still a really solid lineup against righties despite their showing in this series. On the other side, Junk has shown some serious regression in recent outings since the all-star break after a strong run of form earlier on in the year, and I think we’re going to close out this series with another higher scoring game. Give me the over here.