Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction 9/30/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians meet Tuesday in MLB Wild Card Game 1 at Progressive Field. Here’s a Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction. This article will include a Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Pick.

Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers are 87-75 on the year after playing the Guardians and Red Sox. The Detroit Tigers are batting .247 on the season, have a .316 OBP, and a .413 slugging percentage. The Detroit Tigers pitching staff has a 3.95 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Riley Greene leads the Detroit Tigers with 155 hits and 111 RBI, while Gleyber Torres and Spencer Torkelson have combined for 271 hits and 152 RBI.

Tarik Skubal gets the ball for the Detroit Tigers, and he is 13-6 with a 2.21 ERA and 241 strikeouts this season. Skubal is 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 20 strikeouts in his postseason career. Skubal is 3-3 with a 2.33 ERA and 84 strikeouts in his career against the Cleveland Guardians.

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 86-73 on the year after playing the Tigers and Rangers. The Cleveland Guardians are batting .226 on the season, have a .296 OBP, and a .373 slugging percentage. The Cleveland Guardians pitching staff has a 3.70 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Steven Kwan leads the Cleveland Guardians with 170 hits and 56 RBI while Jose Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo have combined for 278 hits and 155 RBI.

Gavin Williams gets the ball for the Cleveland Guardians, and he is 12-5 with a 3.06 ERA and 173 strikeouts this season. Williams is 0-0 with a 11.57 ERA and 4 strikeouts in his postseason career. Williams is 3-2 with a 1.88 ERA and 55 strikeouts in his career against the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians Betting Trends: September 30, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Gavin Williams      Record this season: 12-5      ERA: 3.06
• Home Record: 7-2
• Last 5 against Tigers: 3-1

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Tigers have lost 10 of their last 11 games as favorites.
• The Guardians have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Tuesday games as road favorites.
• The Tigers have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four day games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Tarik Skubal      Record this season: 13-6      ERA: 2.21
• Road Record: 4-5
• Last 5 against Guardians: 1-2

Why the Detroit Tigers will win

• The Tigers have won 16 of their last 17 day games against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Guardians have lost five of their last six day games against the Tigers following a home win.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games against the Tigers at Progressive Field following a home win.
• The Tigers have covered the run line in each of their last four road games.
• The Tigers have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against AL Central opponents.
• The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Tigers’ last five games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Guardians’ last four day games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 13 of the Tigers’ last 15 day games against AL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last four games.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians’ last eight games against AL Central opponents.
• Lane Thomas has hit a home run in two of the Guardians’ last three home playoff games against the Tigers.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Riley Greene has hit a home run in three of the Tigers’ last four games at Progressive Field.
• Javier Baez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven road appearances against AL opponents.
• Jake Rogers has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against AL Central opponents.
• Tarik Skubal ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (2.21) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Guardians rank 29th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.373).
• The Guardians rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.296).
• The Tigers rank 26th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1454).
• The Tigers rank 23rd in the league for doubles this season (244).

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

The Tigers are a talented team that at one point looked like the best in the league, and Skubal is one of the best arms in the sport. You can make a case for the Tigers here. However, the Tigers aren’t in great shape, winning just 3 games since September 11. Every team has a clean slate in the playoffs, but it’s hard to ignore how the Tigers are playing right now, as they went from a division winner to barely making the playoffs. The Guardians have lost just 4 games since September 5 and have won 5 of the last 6 games against the Tigers this month. Williams has allowed 22 hits and 6 runs in his last 31 innings. In 103 at bats against current Tigers, Williams is allowing a .155 batting average, .230 on base percentage and has 43 strikeouts. Give me the Guardians.