Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction 10/2/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians meet Thursday in Wild Card Game 3 MLB action at Progressive Field. Here’s a Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction. This article will include a Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Pick.

Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers look to make the ALDS for a second straight season. The Detroit Tigers are batting .185 on the season, have a .303 OBP, and a .215 slugging percentage. The Detroit Tigers pitching staff has a 3.71 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Javier Baez leads the Detroit Tigers with 4 hits and 1 RBI, while Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene have combined for 5 hits.

Jack Flaherty gets the ball for the Detroit Tigers, and he is 8-15 with a 4.64 ERA and 188 strikeouts this season. Flaherty is 2-5 with a 5.36 ERA and 46 strikeouts in his postseason career. Flaherty is 2-5 with a 2.51 ERA and 54 strikeouts in his career against the Cleveland Guardians.

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians look to make the ALDS for the third time in the last 4 years. The Cleveland Guardians are batting .169 on the season, have a .258 OBP, and a .356 slugging percentage. The Cleveland Guardians pitching staff has a 0.50 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Gabriel Arias leads the Cleveland Guardians with 1 hit and 1 RBI, while C.J. Kayfus and Steven Kwan have combined for 2 hits.

Slade Cecconi gets the ball for the Cleveland Guardians, and he is 7-7 with a 4.30 ERA and 109 strikeouts this season. Cecconi is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 1 strikeout in his postseason career. Cecconi is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 11 strikeouts in his career against the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians Betting Trends: October 2, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Slade Cecconi      Record this season: 7-7      ERA: 4.30
• Home Record: 2-4
• Last 5 against Tigers: 1-1

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Tigers have lost five of their last six day games after playing the previous day.
• The Guardians have won 18 of their last 22 games after playing the previous day.
• The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine day games against AL Central opponents.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have led after 3 innings in each of their last three playoff games as home favorites.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jack Flaherty      Record this season: 8-15      ERA: 4.64
• Road Record: 3-7
• Last 5 against Guardians: 1-3

Why the Detroit Tigers will win

• The Tigers have won 14 of their last 15 games against AL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Guardians have lost seven of their last 10 games as home favorites against the Tigers following a win.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games as home favorites against the Tigers following a home win.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in 12 of the Tigers’ last 14 games.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Tigers’ last seven road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Nine of the Guardians’ last 11 home games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last six home games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Tigers’ last five games as road underdogs against AL Central opponents.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Brayan Rocchio has hit a home run in each of the Guardians’ last two games as home favorites.
• Will Brennan has recorded at least one Double in each of his last three appearances with the Guardians as favorites against AL opponents.
• Will Brennan has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances with the Guardians as favorites against AL opponents.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Riley Greene has hit a home run in three of the Tigers’ last six games at Progressive Field.
• Jack Flaherty has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances with the Tigers as underdogs.
• Javier Baez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances with the Tigers as road underdogs against AL opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Guardians rank 29th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.373).
• The Guardians rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.296).
• The Tigers rank 26th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1454).
• The Tigers rank 23rd in the league for doubles this season (244).

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

I’d lean toward the Guardians if forced to pick a side, but I’m rolling with the over in this spot. Flaherty hasn’t had much success this season in terms of wins, and he has a 5.27 ERA and .260 allowed batting average in 68.1 road innings. Cecconi has been hittable this season with a 4.30 ERA, and in 69.2 home innings, he has a 4.78 ERA and .249 allowed batting average. The Tigers are also due for an offensive breakthrough after going 1-15 with RISP last night. We’ve seen lower scoring games in the first two contests. I expect this to be a bit different. Give me the over.