Cubs vs Reds Prediction 7/11/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Cubs vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, July 11th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 52-42 this season after they lost game one by a score of 0-4 on Friday night. Chicago pitched great through four innings, but they allowed a run in the fifth and three in the seventh in the loss. The Cubs recorded four hits in the game and they were led by Suzuki, who went 2-4. Imanaga allowed seven hits and one earned run over 5.0 innings for the loss, while Woodford allowed three earned runs in relief. Prior to this series, Chicago won two out of three against the Orioles, but lost two out of three against the Cardinals before that. 

This season, Chicago has a 4.35 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while they have scored 471 runs with a .243 batting average and a .336 on base percentage. Dansby Swanson has led the Cubs with 16 home runs and 58 RBIs, while Ian Happ has added 17 home runs and 41 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Javier Assad, who is 6-1 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 56.1 innings pitched this season. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 43-50 this year after they won game one by a score of 4-0 last night. Cincinnati finally scored in the fifth inning and they cruised to the shutout win. The Reds recorded 13 hits in the game and they were led by Bleday, who went 1-3 with one home run and two RBIs. Greene allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Pagan threw a scoreless ninth in relief. Prior to this series, Cincinnati lost two out of three against the Phillies and two out of three against the Orioles. 

This season, Cincinnati has a 4.48 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and a .247 opponent batting average, while they have scored 388 runs with a .228 batting average and a .309 on base percentage. Sal Stewart has led the Reds with 19 home runs and 65 RBIs, while Elly De La Cruz has added 15 home runs and 44 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Lodolo, who is 3-2 with a 4.68 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP over 57.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won each of their last five home games against the Cubs.
• The Cubs have lost seven of their last nine games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line each of their last seven Saturday night games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last three games against the Cubs at Great American Ball Park.

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Reds have lost 10 of their last 11 games at Great American Ball Park following a win.
• The Cubs have won six of their last seven night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in six of their last seven games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in six of their last eight home games following a home win.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Reds’ last nine games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Cubs’ last three games as road favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in 13 of the Reds’ last 14 home games against NL Central opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in eight of the Cubs’ last nine road games against National League opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in each of the Reds’ last two games as home underdogs against the Cubs.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his six previous home appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• JJ Bleday has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances with his team as an underdog against the Cubs.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit at least one home run in six of the Cubs’ last nine night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Javier Assad has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his four previous appearances with the Cubs as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one hit in each of his 10 previous Saturday night appearances against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
• Javier Assad has recorded a win in four of his last five road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.

Cubs vs Reds Prediction 

Cincinnati was able to bounce back from their series loss to the Phillies with a win in game one on Friday and they have alternated wins and losses over their last five games. The Reds are 22-26 at home this year, while the Cubs are 25-23 on the road. Chicago has dropped two in a row and they have scored two total runs in those losses. The Cubs are starting Assad, who has allowed 3+ earned runs in two of his last three starts, while Lodolo has allowed one earned run in his last 15.0 innings. Take the Reds to win game two.

David Racey's Pick: Reds ML