Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Prediction 9/19/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Cleveland Guardians and the Minnesota Twins meet Friday in MLB action from Target Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Cleveland Guardians will send out Parker Messick for the start here and Messick is 3-0 with a 1.84 ERA and 22 strikeouts this season. This will be Messick’s first career start against the Twins. Pablo Lopez will get the nod for the Twins here and is 5-4 with a 2.64 ERA and 71 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Guardians, Lopez is 1-3 with a 2.97 ERA and 20 strikeouts.

Cleveland Guardians Recap

The Cleveland Guardians come into this game looking to add on to their 3-1 win over the Tigers last time out to sit at 81-71 this season. After this series, the Guardians will head home for a rematch series against the Tigers.

Guardians Win 7 In A Row

Steven Kwan has 159 hits as part of a .272 batting average and 10 home runs, 27 doubles and 49 RBIs. Kyle Manzardo has 104 hits with 17 doubles, 2 triples, 26 home runs and 67 RBIs as well this year. Gabriel Arias has 22 doubles but also 146 strikeouts and Manzardo has 123 strikeouts so far this season. Arias has also added 11 home runs and 50 RBIs and Jose Ramirez has chipped in 29 home runs and 80 RBIs with 39 stolen bases as well. 

Minnesota Twins Recap

The Minnesota Twins come into this game looking to rebound from their 10-5 loss at the hands of the New York Yankees last time out to sit at 66-86 this season. After this series, the Twins will head on the road for a series against the Texas Rangers.

Twins Drop 6 Of Last 8

Byron Buxton has 119 hits along with 18 doubles, a team-high 31 home runs and 76 RBIs with 22 stolen bases and 7 triples while Trevor Larnach’s chipped in 119 hits with 21 doubles, 16 home runs and 58 RBIs as well this season. Brooks Lee has contributed 105 hits with 14 doubles, 14 home runs and 58 RBIs and Matt Wallner has 22 homers and 40 RBIs as well. 

Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins Betting Trends: September 19, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Pablo Lopez      Record this season: 5-4      ERA: 2.64
• Home Record: 2-0
• Last 5 against Guardians: 1-3

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Guardians have lost each of their last five road games against teams that held a losing record.
• The home team has won six of the last eight games between the Guardians and Twins.
• The Twins have covered the run line in each of their last three games against the Guardians.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four road games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Guardians have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games at Target Field.
• The Twins have led after 5 innings in four of their last five home games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Parker Messick      Record this season: 3-0      ERA: 1.84
• Road Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Twins: –

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Guardians have won each of their last nine games as underdogs against the Twins following a win.
• The Twins have lost each of their last eight games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last 16 games between the Guardians and Twins.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games as favorites.
• The Twins have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Twins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four night games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Guardians’ last eight games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Twins’ last six games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last six road games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Twins’ last five games as favorites against American League opponents.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Byron Buxton has recorded a Double in three of his last four home appearances against AL opponents.
• Pablo Lopez has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last seven home appearances.
• James Outman has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against AL opponents.
• Trevor Larnach has recorded at least one hit in each of the Twins’ last 11 home games against AL opponents.
• Byron Buxton ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.551) this season.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in each of the Guardians’ last two games against the Twins.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded a Double in four of the Guardians’ last five games at Target Field against opponents that held a losing record.
• Will Brennan has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with the Guardians as underdogs against the Twins.
• Jose Ramirez ranks 3rd in the league in Steals (39) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Twins rank 3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (437).
• The Twins rank 27th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.260).
• The Guardians rank 30th in the league for hits this season (1125).
• The Guardians rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.226).

Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction

I’m on the Guardians here. I just think that the Guardians are playing too well to go against. I know that Lopez is one of the better options in Minnesota’s rotation, but the Minnesota bullpen has been massively problematic and I think that the Guardians take advantage of that to keep their playoff hopes going here. Give me the Guardians here.