Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Prediction 9/8/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Padres Prediction for this MLB game on Monday, September 8th at the PETCO Park in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 78-65 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 43-25 home record, and are 61-76 in over/under. The Padres are coming off an 8-1 road victory over the Rockies, and have back-to-back wins. Over is 8-3-2 in their last 13 games and are playing the Mets and the Rockies next. 

The Padres have a .253 batting average this season, .323 OBP and .388 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Louis Arraez leads the Padres with 158 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .285 batting average. Manny Machado leads the team both in RBI, with 84, and in home runs, with 23. 

Yu Darvish (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 3-5 record, 5.75 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 72-71 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL Central. The Reds have a 32-37 road record and are 54-81 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-2 home victory over the Mets, and have back-to-back wins. Over is 4-2-1 in their last 7 games and are playing the Cardinals and the Athletics next.

The Reds have a .248 batting average this season, .318 OBP and .392 slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 3.94 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.  Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds with 150 hits, and in RBI, with 80, adding a team-high 19 home runs. Gavin Lux is the team’s best hitter with a .271 batting average.

Nick Lodolo (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has an 8-7 record, 3.22 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: September 8, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Yu Darvish      Record this season: 3-5      ERA: 5.75
• Home Record: 2-2
• Last 5 against Reds: 2-3

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Reds have lost each of their last seven night games against the Padres following a home win.
• The Padres have won nine of their last 10 home games against the Reds following a win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last nine games against the Reds following a road win.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line each of their last four road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five Monday night games as road underdogs.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven games at Petco Park against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Lodolo      Record this season: 8-7      ERA: 3.22
• Road Record: 5-5
• Last 5 against Padres: 1-1

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The underdogs have won five of the Padres’ last six games at Petco Park.
• The Padres have lost each of their last three games as home favorites.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Monday games as favorites.
• The road team has covered the run line in five of the Padres’ last six games.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven night games.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in three of their last four home games.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Padres’ last 12 night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Three of the Reds’ last four road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last four night games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Reds’ last 12 night games at Petco Park.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Yu Darvish has recorded seven or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances against the Reds.
• Jake Cronenworth has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight home appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Yu Darvish has recorded a win in four of his last five home appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Elias Diaz has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite against the Reds.
• Gavin Sheets has hit a home run in each of his two previous appearances with his team as a home favorite against the Reds.
• Luis Arraez ranks 4th in the league in Hits (158) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Austin Hays has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last six games as underdogs.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded five or more strikeouts in nine of his last 10 road appearances.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Reds as road underdogs.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T8th in the league in Steals (32) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.226).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1061).
• The Reds rank 24th in the league for home runs this season (141).
• The Reds rank 7th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.237).

Reds vs Padres Prediction

Both teams are tied 5-5 wins in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, but the Padres have won their last two meetings in San Diego. Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 meetings.

In this Reds vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -140 home favorites. Lodolo is the better pitcher in this matchup, and he has been better on the road this season, with a 2.52 road ERA. In his only start against against the Padres this season, he gave up only one run. Darvish has given up 3+ runs in three of his last four starts, and the Padres are much weaker against lefties, while the Reds are better against righties. I like the Reds as a road dog in this spot, so grab the Cincinnati Reds and the plus money in this one.