Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction 9/28/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Brewers Prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, September 27th at the American Family Field in the second game of this series, with the Reds having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers have a 96-64 record this season and are sitting on the 1st place of the NL Central. The Brewers have a 51-28 home record and are 76-79 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-3 home defeat by the Reds, and are 1-4 in their last 5 games. Under is 5-1 in their last 6 games.  

The Brewers have a .259 batting average this season, .332 OBP and .403 slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Brice Turang leads the Brewers with 166 hits, while Sam Frelick is the team’s best hitter, with a .291 batting average. Christian Yelich leads the team in RBI, with 102, adding a team-high 29 home runs.

Robert Gasser (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers, and he has a 0-1 record, 6.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have an 82-78 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL Central. The Reds have a 37-42 road record and are 58-92 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-1 road victory over the Brewers, and have back-to-back wins. Under is 7-1-2 in their last 10 games.

The Reds have a .245 batting average this season, .315 OBP and .391 slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.  Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds with 164 hits, and in RBI, with 85, while Spencer Steer adds a team-high 21 home runs. Gavin Lux is the team’s best hitter with a .269 batting average.

Andrew Abbott (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 9-7 record, 2.80 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends: September 27, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Robert Gasser      Record this season: 0-1      ERA: 6.00
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Reds: –

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The Brewers have won each of their last nine games against the Reds following a loss.
• The Reds have lost each of their last seven games against the Brewers following a road win.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last six night games following a home loss.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games against the Brewers following a road win.
• The Brewers have led after 3 innings in nine of their last 11 home night games.
• The Brewers have led after 5 innings in 16 of their last 21 night games at American Family Field against National League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Abbott      Record this season: 9-7      ERA: 2.80
• Road Record: 5-3
• Last 5 against Brewers: 1-3

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Brewers’ last five games.
• The Brewers have lost each of their last four games as favorites.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games against NL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Reds’ last eight road games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Brewers’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last six games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the last seven games between the Reds and Brewers at American Family Field.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Christian Yelich has hit a home run in six of the Brewers’ last 14 home games against NL Central opponents.
• Christian Yelich has recorded a Double in three of the Brewers’ last four home games.
• Sal Frelick has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Austin Hays has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Reds as underdogs.
• Spencer Steer has hit a home run in two of his last three road appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Jose Trevino has recorded a Double in each of his last three road appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T6th in the league in Steals (37) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for steals this season (162).
• The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for ERA this season (3.61).
• The Reds rank 6th in the league for hits allowed this season (1246).
• The Reds rank 7th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.234).

Reds vs Brewers Prediction

The Brewers are 7-4 in their last 11 meetings against the Reds, and are 3-2 in their last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.

In this Reds vs Brewers Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -155 home favorites. The Reds are still fighting with the Mets for the third Wild Card spot in the NL, while the Brewers have already clinched their playoff spot. Reds put Abbott on the mound, who has been excellent this season, and in his previous start he shut out the Cubs. I don’t trust Gasser on the mound for the Brewers, who have no incentive to win, so I like the Reds as a road dog in this spot. Take the Cincinnati Reds and the plus money in this one.