New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 9/25/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, September 25th at the Wrigley Field in the third game of this series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have an 89-69 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL Central. The Cubs have a 47-30 home record and are 71-74 in over/under. They are coming off a 10-3 home victory over the Mets, that ended their five-game losing streak. They are playing the Cardinals next.

The Cubs have a .249 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .426 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.81 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the Cubs with 175 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .301 batting average. Seiya Suzuki leads the team in RBI, with 93, while Michael Busch adds a team-high 31 home runs.

Shota Imanaga (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 9-7 record, 3.37 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have an 81-77 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL East. The Mets have a 32-45 road record and are 75-75 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-10 road defeat by the Cubs, and are 1-3 in their last 4 games. Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games and are playing the Marlins next.

The Mets have a .250 batting average this season, .327 OBP and .429 slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.03 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.  Francisco Lindor leads the Mets with 168 hits, while Pete Alonso leads the team in batting average with .271. He also adds a team-high 123 RBI, while Juan Soto adds team-high 43 home runs.

Nolan McLean (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 4-1 record, 1.27 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.

New York Mets @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: September 25, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Shota Imanaga      Record this season: 9-7      ERA: 3.37
• Home Record: 4-2
• Last 5 against Mets: 1-1

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last eight road games after playing the previous day.
• The underdogs have won four of the Mets’ last five games at Wrigley Field.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 13 games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last seven games following a win.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in each of their last six home night games.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games as home underdogs.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nolan McLean      Record this season: 4-1      ERA: 1.27
• Road Record: 2-1
• Last 5 against Cubs: –

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last nine games against the Cubs following a loss.
• The Cubs have lost each of their last eight games against the Mets following a win.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home games against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last six night games against the Cubs following a loss.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last eight night games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Cubs’ last six home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Mets’ last nine night games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last seven Thursday night games against NL East opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Dansby Swanson has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with his team as a home underdog against the Mets.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one Double in five of the Cubs’ last six home games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Shota Imanaga has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against NL East opponents.
• Shota Imanaga has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his three previous appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last eight home games.
• Nico Hoerner ranks 5th in the league in Hits (175) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one Double in three of the Mets’ last four games as road favorites.
• Juan Soto has hit a home run in four of the Mets’ last five night games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 14 road games against NL Central opponents.
• Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.399) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (397).
• The Cubs rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (159).
• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (145).
• The Mets rank T4th in the league for home runs this season (220).

Mets vs Cubs Prediction

The Mets are 4-2 in their last 6 head-to-head meetings against the Cubs, and are 3-2 in their last 5 meetings in Chicago. Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 meetings.

In this Mets vs Cubs Prediction, both teams are coming at a pickem price. The Cubs have already clinched their playoff spot, while the Mets hold the last Wild Card spot in the NL, but have two teams just one win behind them. McLean has been excellent for the Mets this season and coming in very good form, but the Mets are weaker against lefties. Imanaga has been struggling lately, but he has been elite this season, so I expect both pitchers to contain the opposing offenses and makes this a low-scoring game. Take the under 7.5 in this one.