New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 9/24/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, September 24th at the Wrigley Field in the second game of this series, with the Mets having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have an 88-69 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL Central. The Cubs have a 46-30 home record and are 70-74 in over/under. They are coming off a 7-9 home defeat by the Mets, and have five straight defeats. They are playing the Cardinals next.

The Cubs have a .249 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .425 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the Cubs with 174 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .302 batting average. Seiya Suzuki leads the team in RBI, with 92, while Michael Busch adds a team-high 30 home runs.

Matthew Boyd (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 13-8 record, 3.20 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have an 81-76 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL East. The Mets have a 32-44 road record and are 74-75 in over/under. They are coming off a 9-7 road victory over the Cubs, that ended their two-game losing streak. Over is 7-3 in their last 10 games and are playing the Marlins next.

The Mets have a .251 batting average this season, .327 OBP and .430 slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.  Francisco Lindor leads the Mets with 168 hits, while Pete Alonso leads the team in batting average with .273. He also adds a team-high 123 RBI, while Juan Soto adds team-high 42 home runs.

Jonah Tong (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 2-2 record, 5.94 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.

New York Mets @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: September 24, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Matthew Boyd      Record this season: 13-8      ERA: 3.20
• Home Record: 11-1
• Last 5 against Mets: 1-0

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last seven road games after playing the previous day.
• The Cubs have won five of their last six home games following a home loss.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last four home games against the Mets following a home loss.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in 10 of their last 12 night games at Wrigley Field against National League opponents.
• The Mets have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in 10 of their last 11 home night games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jonah Tong      Record this season: 2-2      ERA: 5.94
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Cubs: –

Why the New York Mets will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Mets’ last four games at Wrigley Field.
• The Cubs have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as home favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs against the Cubs.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last nine night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Cubs’ last six night games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last eight night games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Cubs’ last eight games as favorites.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Nico Hoerner has recorded two or more hits in each of the Cubs’ last five home games.
• Matthew Boyd has recorded five or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents.
• Matthew Boyd has recorded a win in seven of his last eight home appearances against NL opponents.
• Kyle Tucker has hit a home run in five of his last nine appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one Double in four of the Cubs’ last five home games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Nico Hoerner ranks 5th in the league in Hits (174) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in four of the Mets’ last five games against the Cubs.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 13 road games against NL Central opponents.
• Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.399) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (396).
• The Cubs rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (158).
• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (143).
• The Mets are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.

Mets vs Cubs Prediction

The Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 head-to-head meetings against the Cubs, and are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Chicago. Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 meetings.

In this Mets vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -125 home favorites. The Cubs have been struggling since clinching their playoff spot, while the Mets are still fighting for a wild card spot. The Cubs have the pitching advantage in this one, as Boyd takes the mound and he has been excellent this season, and even better at home, with a 2.45 ERA. On the flip side, Tong was torched in his two starts before his last shutout, having 10 earned runs in just 6.2 innings pitched. I like the hosts in a bounce-back spot today, so take the Cubs on the moneyline in this one.