Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction 10/4/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals meet Saturday in Game 1 NLDS MLB action at American Family Field. Here’s a Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction. This article will include a Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick.

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are coming off a 3-game series with the Padres. The Chicago Cubs are batting .258 on the season, have a .295 OBP, and a .404 slugging percentage. The Chicago Cubs pitching staff has a 1.67 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the Chicago Cubs with 4 hits and 1 RBI, while Michael Busch and Seiya Suzuki have combined for 7 hits and 2 RBI.

Matthew Boyd gets the ball for the Chicago Cubs, and he is 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and 154 strikeouts this season. Boyd is 2-2 with a 1.10 ERA and 16 strikeouts in his postseason career. Boyd is 2-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 19 strikeouts in his career against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 97-65 on the year and play for the first time since September 28. The Milwaukee Brewers are batting .258 on the season, have a .332 OBP, and a .403 slugging percentage. The Milwaukee Brewers pitching staff has a 3.58 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Brice Turang leads the Milwaukee Brewers with 168 hits and 81 RBI while Sal Frelick and Christian Yelich have combined for 303 hits and 166 RBI.

Freddy Peralta gets the ball for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he is 17-6 with a 2.70 ERA and 204 strikeouts this season. Peralta is 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA and 22 strikeouts in his postseason career. Peralta is 9-3 with a 3.21 ERA and 131 strikeouts in his career against the Chicago Cubs.

The Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends: October 4, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta      Record this season: 17-6      ERA: 2.70
• Home Record: 9-1
• Last 5 against Cubs: 4-1

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The Cubs have lost each of their last four road games.
• The home team has won five of the Cubs’ last six games.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight playoff games following a win.
• The favorites have covered the run line in nine of the Cubs’ last 11 games.
• The Brewers have led after 5 innings in three of their last four day games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Matthew Boyd      Record this season (inc. playoffs): 14-8      ERA: 3.18
• Road Record: 2-7
• Last 5 against Brewers: 2-2

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Brewers have lost each of their last four playoff games as home favorites following a win.
• The underdogs have won six of the Brewers’ last seven games.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as home favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games against National League opponents.
• The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three day playoff games.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against the Brewers.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last six day playoff games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Brewers’ last six day playoff games at American Family Field have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last five games at American Family Field.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Cubs’ last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Andrew Vaughn has recorded a Double in each of the Brewers’ last three day games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in six of his last eight home appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Freddy Peralta has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against the Cubs at American Family Field.
• Brice Turang has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers’ last eight games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Danny Jansen has hit a home run in three of the Brewers’ last four day games.
• Freddy Peralta ranks 7th amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (2.70) this season.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Seiya Suzuki has hit at least one home run in five of the Cubs’ last seven games.
• Kyle Tucker has recorded a Double in three of his last four road appearances against NL opponents.
• Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 10 games against NL opponents.
• Kyle Tucker ranks 7th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.377) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for ERA this season (3.58).
• The Brewers rank 3rd in the league for runs scored this season (806).
• The Cubs rank T3rd in the league for steals this season (161).
• The Cubs rank T4th in the league for triples this season (29).

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

The Cubs looked sharp in their wild card series, and a part of me is thinking they could be a sneaky contender. However, the Brewers have been so consistent they’re just hard to bet against, especially at home with the rest advantage. Some still aren’t believers in the Brewers, but we’ve had 162 game sample size, folks. The Brewers are legit. Peralta also has been one of the best pitchers in baseball with his 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, and through 91.2 home innings, he has a 1.77 ERA and .192 allowed batting average. I can’t go against that. Give me the Brewers to draw first blood on Saturday.