Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction 9/21/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Cubs vs Reds Prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 21st at the Great American Ball Park in the 4th game of this series, with the Reds having the 3-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 79-76 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL Central. The Reds have a 43-34 home record and are 58-88 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-3 home victory over the Cubs, and are 5-1 in their last 5 games. Under is 8-4-1 in their last 12 games and are playing the Pirates and the Brewers next.

The Reds have a .245 batting average this season, .316 OBP and .393 slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 3.94 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.  Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds with 158 hits, and in RBI, with 83, while Spencer Steer adds a team-high 21 home runs. Gavin Lux is the team’s best hitter with a .265 batting average.

Andrew Abbott (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 9-7 record, 2.88 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have an 88-67 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL Central. The Cubs have a 42-38 road record and are 69-73 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-6 road defeat by the Reds, and have three straight defeats. Under is 9-5-1 in their last 15 games and are playing the Mets and the Cardinals next.

The Cubs have a .249 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .427 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the Cubs with 171 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .301 batting average. Seiya Suzuki leads the team in RBI, with 91, while Michael Busch adds a team-high 30 home runs.

Jameson Taillon (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 10-6 record, 3.93 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.

The Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: September 21, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Abbott      Record this season: 9-7      ERA: 2.88
• Home Record: 4-4
• Last 5 against Cubs: 3-1

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won each of their last six day games against National League opponents.
• The Cubs have lost four of their last five games at Great American Ball Park.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Sunday games.
• The Reds have covered the run line in five of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games at Great American Ball Park.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against the Cubs at Great American Ball Park.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jameson Taillon      Record this season: 10-6      ERA: 3.93
• Road Record: 6-4
• Last 5 against Reds: 3-1

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won nine of their last 10 day games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Reds have lost each of their last four day games against the Cubs following a win.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven day games against the Cubs following a win.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in 12 of their last 13 day games at Great American Ball Park following a loss.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four day games against National League opponents.
• The Reds have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Fourteen of the Reds’ last 16 day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Cubs’ last seven games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the last eight games between the Cubs and Reds.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last five day games at Great American Ball Park.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has recorded a Double in three of the Reds’ last four games as home favorites against NL opponents.
• Spencer Steer has hit at least one home run in three of the Reds’ last four games.
• Miguel Andujar has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances against NL opponents.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T6th in the league in Steals (36) this season.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Ian Happ has hit a home run in three of the Cubs’ last four day games.
• Jameson Taillon has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances with the Cubs as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Kyle Tucker has recorded a Double in three of his last four road appearances.
• Nico Hoerner ranks T5th in the league in Hits (171) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Reds rank 7th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.236).
• The Reds rank 22nd in the league for home runs this season (161).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (394).
• The Cubs rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (154).

Cubs vs Reds Prediction

The Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 head-to-head meetings against the Cubs, and are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Cincinnati. Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 meetings.

In this Cubs vs Reds Prediction, both teams are coming at a pickem price. The Reds are the ones fighting for a Wild Card spot and are playing good baseball in the best possible time. They are putting Abbott on the mound, who has been elite this season and excellent at home, with a 2.52 ERA. On the flip side, Tallion takes the mound for the Cubs, and he has a 4.52 road ERA, and has a 4.88 ERA across his last 5 starts. the Cubs are weaker against left-handed pitching, so I expect another win for the home team in this one. Take the Cincinnati Reds on the moneyline.