Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction 9/20/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Cubs vs Reds Prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, September 20th at the Great American Ball Park in the third game of this series, with the Reds having the 2-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 78-76 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL Central. The Reds have a 42-34 home record and are 58-88 in over/under. They are coming off a 7-4 home victory over the Cubs, and are 4-1 in their last 5 games. Under is 8-4 in their last 12 games and are playing the Pirates and the Brewers next.

The Reds have a .245 batting average this season, .316 OBP and .392 slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 3.94 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.  Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds with 157 hits, and in RBI, with 83, adding a team-high 20 home runs. Gavin Lux is the team’s best hitter with a .267 batting average.

Zack Littell (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 9-8 record, 3.86 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have an 88-66 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL Central. The Cubs have a 42-37 road record and are 69-73 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-7 road defeat by the Reds, and have back-to-back wins. Under is 9-5 in their last 14 games and are playing the Mets and the Cardinals next.

The Cubs have a .249 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .427 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the Cubs with 169 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .300 batting average. Seiya Suzuki leads the team in RBI, with 91, while Pete Crow-Armstrong adds a team-high 29 home runs.

Javier Assad (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 3-1 record, 4.23 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

The Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: September 20, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Zack Littell      Record this season: 9-8      ERA: 3.86
• Home Record: 2-4
• Last 5 against Cubs: 2-0

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won each of their last four games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Cubs have lost three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last 13 Saturday games as home underdogs.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games following a loss.
• The Reds have won the first inning in each of their last five games as underdogs against the Cubs at Great American Ball Park.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in 11 of their last 14 games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games at Great American Ball Park.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Javier Assad      Record this season: 3-1      ERA: 4.23
• Road Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Reds: 0-1

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last 10 Saturday night games.
• The Reds have lost four of their last five home games against NL Central opponents following a home win.
• The Cubs have covered the run line each of their last six Saturday night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games at Great American Ball Park following a win.
• The Cubs have won the first inning in eight of their last nine Saturday games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Saturday night games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Cubs’ last 10 night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Reds’ last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the last seven games between the Cubs and Reds.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Cubs’ last seven games as favorites.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Spencer Steer has hit at least one home run in three of his last four appearances with the Reds as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Austin Hays has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances in night games.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T7th in the league in Steals (35) this season.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Dansby Swanson has hit a home run in three of the Cubs’ last four games as favorites against the Reds.
• Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one Double in five of the Cubs’ last six road games against the Reds.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last eight road games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Nico Hoerner ranks T6th in the league in Hits (169) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Reds rank 8th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.236).
• The Reds rank 8th in the league for hits allowed this season (1211).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (392).
• The Cubs rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (154).

Cubs vs Reds Prediction

The Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 head-to-head meetings against the Cubs, and are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Cincinnati. Under is 6-2 in their last 8 meetings.

 This is a classic case of a pitcher’s duel between two southpaws. Both pitchers are coming into this matchup in bad form, and that is why the total is set at 8.5 runs. Yesterday’s game had only one total runs and both teams are far weaker against southpaws, averaging 8.1 runs per game combined againt lefties. Take the under 8.5 runs in this one.