Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 07/18/2025 Picks

The Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs meet Friday in MLB action from Wrigley Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago Cubs prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Boston Red Sox will start Lucas Giolito in this one, and Giolito is 6-1 with a 3.36 ERA and 64 strikeouts this season. Colin Rea will get the nod for the Cubs in this one and is 7-3 with a 3.91 ERA and 65 strikeouts this season.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to add on to their 4-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays last time out to sit at 53-45 on the year. After this series, the Red Sox will head on the road for a series against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Red Sox Ride Double-Digit Win Streak Into All-Star Break

Alex Bregman has 61 hits, including 18 doubles along with 11 home runs, and 35 RBIs this season. Trevor Story added 93 hits with 15 home runs, 58 RBIs, and 16 stolen bases, while Jarren Duran has 103 hits with 25 doubles, 10 triples, 8 home runs, 50 RBIs, and a team-high 16 stolen bases. Kristian Campbell added 51 hits with 10 doubles, 6 homers, and 21 RBIs while Wilyer Abreu has 18 home runs with 52 RBIs and 5 stolen bases and Ceddanne Rafaela has 14 homers, 21 doubles, 2 triples, 48 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases this season.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

The Red Sox have won each of their last 10 games.
The Cubs have lost each of their last three games as favorites against AL East opponents following a road win.
The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven home games against AL East opponents following a win.
The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last six games against National League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last four road games against NL opponents.
Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances.
Lucas Giolito has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances.
Triston Casas has hit a home run in four of his last five road appearances against NL Central opponents.

Chicago Cubs Recap

The Chicago Cubs come into this game looking to build on their 4-1 win over the Yankees from their last game to sit at 57-39 on the year. After this series, the Cubs will square off against the Royals at home.

Cubs Win Back-To-Back Games Entering Break

Ian Happ has 79 hits with 15 doubles, 12 home runs and 46 RBIs. Kyle Tucker has 100 hits including 19 doubles, 4 triples, 17 home runs and 56 RBIs while Seiya Suzuki also has 97 hits with 24 doubles and 25 home runs and 77 RBIs of his own. Pete Crow-Armstrong also has contributed 99 hits, 21 doubles, 4 triples, 25 home runs and 71 RBIs as well this season. Dansby Swanson has added 16 home runs and 47 RBIs, while also having 105 strikeouts and Suzuki has a team-high 109 strikeouts so far this season. Crow-Armstrong also has a team-high 27 stolen bases while Nico Hoerner has 16 stolen bases this season. Tucker’s also added 22 stolen bases while Michael Busch has also chipped in 15 doubles, 3 triples, 19 home runs and 59 RBIs this season.

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

The home team has won each of the Red Sox’s last seven games.
The Red Sox have lost 10 of their last 11 road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
The Cubs have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games at Wrigley Field following a road win.
The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven day games against National League opponents following a home win.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

Seiya Suzuki has hit at least one home run in three of the Cubs’ last four home games against opponents that held a winning record.
Seiya Suzuki has recorded a Double in four of the Cubs’ last five games against opponents that held a winning record.
Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 11 games as favorites.
Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks 4th in the league in Steals (27) this season.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Cubs’ last seven day games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Each of the Red Sox’s last seven games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.

Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction

I’m on the Red Sox here. I get the case to be made for the Cubs at home as this is a team that’s done a good job of beating up on right-handed pitching for much of the season. However, while one may argue that the break came at a horrible time for the Red Sox in terms of killing any momentum, I think Boston’s still worth backing as they’ve been smashing right-handed pitching in the month of July and Colin Rea for me is far from a world-beater. Give me the Red Sox in this one.