Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 9/20/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, September 20th at the George M. Steinbrenner Field in the second game of this series, with the Red Sox having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 75-79 record this season and are sitting on the 4th place of the AL East. The Rays have a 40-39 home record and are 67-77 in over/under. They are coming off a 7-11 home defeat by the Red Sox, that ended their two-game winning streak. They are playing the Orioles and the Blue Jays next.

The Rays have a .252 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .404 slugging percentage. Tampa’s pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  Yandy Diaz leads the Rays with 170 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with .300 batting average. Junior Caminero leads the team in RBI, with 108 and in home runs, with 44.

Adrian Houser (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has an 8-4 record, 3.11 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have an 84-70 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the AL East. The Red Sox have a 38-38 road record and are 73-77 in over/under. They are coming off a 11-7 road victory over the Rays, and are 3-5 in their last 8 games. They are 6-3-1 to the under in their last 10 games and are playing the Tigers and the Blue Jays next.

The Red Sox have a .254 batting average this season, .324 OBP and .424 slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.75 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Trevor Story leads the Red Sox with 154 hits, while is the team’s best hitter, with a .265 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 94, adding a team-high 25 home runs.

Kyle Harrison (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has a 1-1 record, 4.05 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: September 20, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Adrian Houser      Record this season: 8-4      ERA: 3.11
• Home Record: 7-0
• Last 5 against Red Sox: –

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The favorites have won each of the last eight games between the Red Sox and Rays.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last three games following a win.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games against the Rays following a win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in five of their last six night games against the Red Sox following a loss.
• The Rays have won the first inning in five of their last six night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 games as underdogs.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Kyle Harrison      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 4.05
• Road Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Rays: –

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last seven games against the Rays.
• The Rays have lost each of their last four games as home favorites.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games as favorites against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in seven of the Rays’ last eight games at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
• The Rays have lost the first inning in each of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Red Sox’s last eight road games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Rays’ last five games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last six games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last six games as favorites against AL East opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Taylor Walls has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against AL East opponents.
• Adrian Houser has recorded a win in each of his last seven home appearances.
• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in each of his last three Saturday night appearances against teams that held a winning record.
• Taylor Walls has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (42) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last three night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Alex Bregman has hit at least one home run in each of his last two road appearances against the Rays.
• Jarren Duran has recorded a hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Red Sox as road underdogs against the Rays.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 1st in the league for steals this season (186).
• The Rays are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (307).
• The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for hits this season (1345).

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction

The Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 head-to-head meetings against the Rays, and are 3-1 in their last 4 visits in Tampa Bay. Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 meetings.

In this Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, both teams are coming at a pickem price. I don’t trust either pitcher in this matchup, so I’m staying away from any side. Houser has been excellent at home for the Rays, with a 7-0 record and 2.54 ERA, while on the flip side, Harrisson has been struggling lately for the Red Sox, having 8 earned runs in his last two starts. I like the value with the home team in a bounce-back spot, so take the Tampa Bay Rays on the moneyline in this one.