Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction 8/9/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, August 9th at the Petco Park in the second game of this series, with the Red Sox having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 64-52 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 36-20 home record, and are 48-65 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 2-10 home defeat by the Red Sox, which snapped their previous two-game winning streak. Over is 4-2 in their last 6 games and are playing the Dodgers and the Giants next.

The Padres have a .251 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .380 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.63 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Manny Machado leads the Padres with 134 hits and team-high .300 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 72, adding a team-high 20 home runs.

Michael King (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 4-2 record, 2.59 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have a 65-52 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the AL East. The Red Sox have a 26-30 road record and are 56-58 in over/under. They are coming off a 10-2 road victory over the Padres, and are 8-1 in their last 9 games. They are 7-2 to the over in their last 9 games and are playing the Marlins and the Astros next.

The Red Sox have a .254 batting average this season, .324 OBP and .431 slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.71 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Jarren Duran leads the Red Sox with 122 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .264 batting average. Trevor Story leads the team in RBI, with 73, while Wilyer Abreu adds a team-high 21 home runs.

Lucas Giolito (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has an 8-2 record, 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last 10 games at Petco Park following a loss.
• The Red Sox have lost eight of their last 10 games against NL West opponents following a road win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in four of their last five games following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 12 games against NL West opponents following a road win.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in 13 of their last 15 road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last six games as underdogs.
• The Padres have lost each of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line each of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in three of their last four games.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven night games at Petco Park against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against the Padres at Petco Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last four night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Padres’ last six home games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Red Sox’s last 12 games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Padres’ last 11 games against AL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (866).
• The Padres rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (98).
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (241).
• The Red Sox rank 3rd in the league for hits this season (1020).

Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction

The Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 head-to-head meetings against the Red Sox, but the Red Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 meetings in San Diego. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.

In this Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -150 home favorites. Even though the Red Sox have more wins than the Padres, the Padres are rightfully favored, as they have been one of the best home teams in the league, while the Red Sox are below average on the road.
I’m on the Red Sox in this one. King has been solid for the Padres this season, but he has been inactive since May. Giolito on the other hand, has a 4-1 record in his last 5 starts, and he is coming back-to-back games where he had just one earned run. Boston also has the 4th-best offense in the league, so I like them as underdogs in this spot. Take the Boston Red Sox for plus money in this one.