Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction 8/11/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction for this MLB game on Monday, August 11th at the Daikin Park in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 66-52 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the AL West. The Astros have a 35-24 home record and 52-60 in over/under. They are coming off a 7-1 road victory over the Yankees, and are 4-2 in their last 6 games. Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games and are playing the Orioles and the Tigers next.

The Astros have a .258 batting average this season, .323 OBP and .408 slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 3.69 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Jose Altuve leads the Astros with 126 hits, he leads the team in RBI with 63, adding a team-high 21 home runs. Jeremy Pena is the team’s best hitter with a .315 batting average.

Cristian Javier (R) is the projected starter for the Astros, and this will be his first start of the season. Last season he had a 3-1 record, 3.89 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have a 65-54 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the AL East. The Red Sox have a 26-32 road record and are 58-58 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-6 road defeat by the Padres, and are 1-3 in their last 4 games. They are 9-2 to the over in their last 11 games and are playing the Marlins and the Orioles next.

The Red Sox have a .253 batting average this season, .324 OBP and .428 slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.73 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Jarren Duran leads the Red Sox with 124 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .264 batting average. Trevor Story leads the team in RBI, with 73, while Wilyer Abreu adds a team-high 21 home runs.

Garrett Crochet (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has a 13-4 record, 2.24 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won each of their last eight games as home underdogs.
• The Red Sox have lost four of their last five games as favorites against the Astros following a loss.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last 11 games as underdogs against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Astros following a loss.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight night games against the Red Sox at Daikin Park.
• The Astros have won the first inning in four of their last five games as underdogs against the Red Sox.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Astros have lost each of their last seven games against American League opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have won each of their last seven games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 home games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Astros have lost the first inning in each of their last three home games against American League opponents.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine home games against American League opponents.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in eight of their last nine home games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last six games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the last seven games between the Red Sox and Astros at Daikin Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last nine games at Daikin Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the last 13 games between the Red Sox and Astros at Daikin Park.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1125).
• The Astros rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.258).
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (244).
• The Red Sox rank T3rd in the league for hits this season (1034).

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction

The Red Sox have won their last five meetings against the Astros, sweeping their only previous series this season in Boston by 3-0 wins and a combined 15-5 score. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.

In this Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction, the Red Sox are coming as -180 road favorites. Both teams have almost identical overall records, but the Astros have been strong at home, while the Red Sox have been below average on the road. Boston puts Crochet on the mound, who has been elite so far this season, and he has been even better on the road. He has been lights out lately, with a 5-0 record in his last 5 starts, to go with a 1.91 ERA. Javier has not taken the mound since May 2024, and I expect a lot of rust off him. Take the Boston Red Sox to win this one on the road.