Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 5/17/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Boston Red Sox and the Atlanta Braves meet Sunday in MLB action from Truist Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Boston Red Sox will send out Brayan Bello for the start here and Bello is 2-4 with a 6.46 ERA and 29 strikeouts this season. Grant Holmes will start here for the Braves and is 2-1 with a 4.35 ERA and 34 strikeouts this season.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to add on to their 3-2 win over the Braves last time out to sit at 19-26 this season. After this series, the Red Sox will head on the road for a series against the Royals.

Red Sox Snap Two-Game Skid

Wilyer Abreu leads the Red Sox with 51 hits including 7 doubles, a triple, 6 home runs and 19 RBIs while Trevor Story has 34 hits with 7 doubles, 3 homers and 19 RBIs and Marcelo Mayer’s added 27 hits with 6 doubles, 2 home runs and 9 RBIs as well. Roman Anthony has 25 hits with 5 doubles, a triple, a home run and 5 RBIs so far this season while Jarren Duran has 28 hits with 7 doubles, 4 home runs and 18 RBIs as well this season. Willson Contreras has added 38 hits with 5 doubles, 9 homers and 25 RBIs of his own on the year.

Atlanta Braves Recap

The Atlanta Braves come into this game looking to bounce back from their 3-2 loss at the hands of the Red Sox last time out to sit at 31-15 this season. After this series, the Braves will head on the road for a series against Miami.

Braves Alternate Wins & Losses In 4 Straight

Drake Baldwin has 56 hits with 6 doubles, 13 home runs and 36 RBIs while Matt Olson has 50 hits with 15 doubles, 14 homers and 37 RBIs. Ozzie Albies has added 49 hits with 8 doubles, 8 home runs and 25 RBIs and Ronald Acuna Jr. has 32 hits with 8 doubles, a triple, 2 home runs and 9 RBIs. Austin Riley has 37 hits with 7 doubles, 6 home runs and 25 RBIs and Michael Harris II has 45 hits with 5 doubles, 8 home runs and 24 RBIs and Mauricio Dubon has 40 hits with 10 doubles, 2 triples, 3 home runs and 25 RBIs this season.

Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves Betting Trends: May 17, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Grant Holmes      Record this season: 2-1      ERA: 4.35
• Home Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 0-1

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Braves have won each of their last eight games following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have lost five of their last six road games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last four day games at Truist Park following a loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in 11 of their last 12 games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brayan Bello      Record this season: 2-4      ERA: 6.46
• Road Record: 2-3
• Last 5 against Braves: 1-1

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won four of their last five games as underdogs following a win.
• The Braves have lost four of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line each of their last eight day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line each of their last six games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in five of their last six day games against NL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in three of their last four day games against NL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last six day games against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Braves’ last eight home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last seven games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last eight games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last seven games between the Red Sox and Braves.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Austin Riley has hit at least one home run in eight of his last 16 appearances with the Braves as favorites against AL East opponents.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances with the Braves as favorites against AL opponents.
• Drake Baldwin ranks T3rd in the league in Hits (56) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 11 road games against NL East opponents.
• Trevor Story has hit a home run in six of his last 10 appearances with his team as a road underdog against the Braves.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Braves rank 1st in the league for hits this season (418).
• The Braves rank T1st in the league for RBIs this season (237).
• The Red Sox rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (33).
• The Red Sox rank 29th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.356).

Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction

I’m on the Braves in this one. I just think that Bello has been one of the least effective starters in this Boston rotation, and has been very hittable this season and that’s bad news against an Atlanta team that has hit right-handed pitching all season long. Holmes has been decent all season long and I think the Braves get the job done here. I’ll back Atlanta.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Atlanta -150