Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 9/31/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Braves vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, August 31st at the Citizens Bank Park in the 4th game of this series, with the Phillies having the 3-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 79-57 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the NL East. They have a 45-22 home record, and are 58-70 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-2 home victory over the Braves, and have three consecutive wins. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 games and are playing the Brewers and the Marlins next.

The Phillies have a .257 batting average this season, .327 OBP and .424 Slugging percentage. Philly’s pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Phillies with 168 hits and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .300 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 119 RBI and a team-high 49 home runs.

Jesus Luzardo (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 12-6 record, 4.23 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

Atlanta Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves have a 61-75 record this season and are sitting on the 4th place of the NL East. The Braves have a 28-42 road record and 62-64 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-3 road defeat by the Phillies, and have three consecutive losses. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 games and are playing the Cubs and the Mariners next.

The Braves have a .244 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .394 Slugging percentage. Atlanta’s pitching staff has a 4.41 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Matt Olson leads the Braves with 142 hits, and he is also the team’s best hitter with a .271 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 76, while Marcell Ozuna leads the team in home runs with 21.

Hurston Waldrep (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves, and he has a 4-0 record, 0.90 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

The Phillies have won each of their last eight home games after playing the previous day.
The Braves have lost seven of their last eight games at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies have covered the run line in eight of their last 10 games as home favorites after going to extra innings.
The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in eight of their last nine games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
The Phillies have led after 5 innings in 13 of their last 15 games as home favorites against NL East opponents.

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

The Phillies have lost six of their last nine games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
The Braves have won each of their last three night games after going to extra innings.
The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games against the Braves following a win.
The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last seven games at Citizens Bank Park following a road loss.
The Braves have led after 3 innings in each of their last six Sunday night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

Four of the Phillies’ last five home games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Six of the Braves’ last eight road games following an extra innings loss have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Braves’ last 11 night games at Citizens Bank Park.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the last 10 games between the Braves and Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.

Matchup/League Facts

The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (1246).
The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (364).
The Braves rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (488).
The Braves rank T24th in the league for steals this season (68).

Braves vs Phillies Prediction

The Phillies are 7-2 in their last 9 head-to-head meetings against the Braves, and are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings in Philadelphia. Under is 6-2 in their last 8 meetings.

In this Braves vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -150 home favorites. The red-hot Waldrep takes the mound for the Braves and he will to try to salvage the series and avoid a Phillies sweep. He has been lights out this season, and coming into this matchup in amazing form, with just two earned runs in his last four starts. On the flip side, Luzardo has been bad at home for the Phillies, with a 4.92 home ERA, and the Braves have a better bullpen. I like the Braves as road dogs in this spot to avoid the series sweep. Take the Atlanta Braves on the road for plus money in this one.