Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction 7/9/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres meet Thursday in MLB action from Petco Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Arizona Diamondbacks will start Merrill Kelly here and Kelly is 6-8 with a 5.71 ERA and 53 strikeouts this season. Griffin Canning will start for the Padres here and is 1-6 with a 6.71 ERA and 50 strikeouts this season. 

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game looking to bounce back from their 10-4 loss at the hands of San Diego last time out to sit at 45-47 this season. After this series, the Diamondbacks will head home for a series against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Diamondbacks Lose 3 In A Row

Entering Wednesday, Corbin Carroll has 85 hits including 18 doubles, 10 triples, 13 home runs and 45 RBIs. Ketel Marte has 91 hits with 18 doubles, 17 home runs and 54 RBIs and Geraldo Perdomo has 73 hits, with 13 doubles, 3 triples, 5 home runs and 31 RBIs as well this season. Nolan Arenado also has 68 hits with 16 doubles, 9 home runs and 36 RBIs and Jose Fernandez has 42 hits with 3 home runs and 15 RBIs this season. Ildemaro Vargas also has 68 hits with 12 doubles, 2 triples, 7 home runs and 46 RBIs.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres will be out to add on to their 10-4 win over Arizona last time out to sit at 46-46 this season. After this series, the Padres will take on the Toronto Blue Jays in a series at home.

Padres Win Back-To-Back Games

Going into Wednesday, Jackson Merrill has 71 hits with 15 doubles, 10 home runs and 34 RBIs while Ramon Laureano has 37 hits with 6 doubles, 2 triples, 7 home runs and 21 RBIs as well on the year. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 98 hits with 18 doubles and 34 RBIs and Xander Bogaerts has 68 hits with 7 doubles, 8 home runs and 33 RBIs. Manny Machado also has 60 hits with 16 doubles, 18 home runs and 51 RBIs as well on the year.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: July 9, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Griffin Canning      Record this season: 1-6      ERA: 6.71
• Home Record: 0-2
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 2-2

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won six of their last seven home games against the Diamondbacks.
• The Diamondbacks have lost five of their last six road games.
• The Padres have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games at Petco Park.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven Thursday games as underdogs.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly      Record this season: 6-8      ERA: 5.71
• Road Record: 3-5
• Last 5 against Padres: 1-4

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Padres have lost four of their last five games as favorites against NL West opponents following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have won four of their last six games as underdogs against NL West opponents following a loss.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 games as favorites following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in five of their last six road games against NL West opponents following a loss.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in each of their last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Fourteen of the Diamondbacks’ last 16 road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Padres’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the last eight night games between the Diamondbacks and Padres.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Diamondbacks’ last six road games.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Luis Campusano has hit a home run in four of his last six appearances with the Padres as favorites against NL West opponents.
• Griffin Canning has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Samad Taylor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T5th in the league in Steals (23) this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Geraldo Perdomo has hit a home run in three of his last six appearances with the Diamondbacks as road underdogs against the Padres.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded a win in four of his last five road appearances against NL West opponents.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded four or more strikeouts in 14 of his last 15 appearances against the Padres.
• Ketel Marte has recorded at least one hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last 11 games as road underdogs against NL opponents.
• Corbin Carroll is one of only two players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (362).
• The Padres rank 30th in the league for hits this season (681).
• The Diamondbacks rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (625).
• The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (83).

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Prediction

I’m backing the over here. I still don’t trust either side, but I don’t trust either starting pitcher even more so here. I think this ends up being a high-scoring game early before the bullpens play their part, so give me the over here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Over 9