Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction 5/11/25 MLB Picks

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 23-16 on the year and play the Brewers, Reds, and Twins next. The Cleveland Guardians are batting .237 on the season, have a .310 OBP, and a .388 slugging percentage. The Cleveland Guardians' pitching staff has a 4.26 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Steven Kwan leads the Cleveland Guardians with 50 hits and 17 RBI, while Jose Ramirez and Gabriel Arias have combined for 72 hits and 34 RBI.

Luis Ortiz gets the ball for the Cleveland Guardians, and he is 2-3 with a 5.30 ERA and 40 strikeouts this season. Ortiz is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 7 strikeouts in his career against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Guardians have won each of their last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have lost each of their last five games as favorites against AL Central opponents following a road win.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in 11 of their last 12 games against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games against AL Central opponents following a road win.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won nine of their last 10 games against American League opponents.
• The Guardians have lost five of their last six home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five night games at Progressive Field following a home loss.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in six of their last eight games as road favorites against American League opponents.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in three of their last four road games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Jose Ramirez has recorded a Double in three of the Guardians' last four games against NL opponents at Progressive Field.
• Carlos Santana has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Guardians' last four games against NL opponents.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances with the Guardians as underdogs.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians' last nine games at Progressive Field against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Lane Thomas has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Lane Thomas has scored at least one run in five of his last six home appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Steven Kwan ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.327) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Marsh has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances with the Phillies as road favorites against AL opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in five of his last nine appearances against AL opponents.
• Brandon Marsh has recorded an RBI in four of his last five appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• J.T. Realmuto has scored at least one run in each of his last four road appearances against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded eight or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances with the Phillies as road favorites.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against AL opponents.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of the Phillies' last nine road games.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies' last nine road games.
• Zack Wheeler ranks 3rd in the league for total Strikeouts (66) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

It’s hard to go against the Phillies in this spot as they’ve caught fire over the last couple of weeks, and Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Wheeler is second in strikeouts and has a top-10 WHIP at 0.94. Wheeler has gone at least six innings in each of his last four starts and has allowed no more than two runs in all of those games. Ortiz has had some promising performances, but he’s also allowed four or more runs in two of his last three starts. Ortiz is coming off a bad performance against the Nationals, where he allowed five hits and five earned runs in 5.1 innings while walking three. I’m going to side with the Phillies and lay the RL to shave down the price.