Brewers vs Rays Prediction 5/11/25 MLB Picks

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 18-21 this season after they won game two by a score of 3-2 on Saturday afternoon. Tampa Bay blew a 2-1 lead in the fifth inning, but they pitched very well in the game and got the win in the ninth. The Rays recorded five hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Jankowski, who went 2-3 with two RBIs in the win. Tampa Bay started Bradley, who allowed four hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Fairbanks picked up the win in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Rays lost all three against the Phillies, but did win two out of three against the Yankees before that. Tampa Bay has lost three of its last five games, and they are currently fourth in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.74 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and a .235 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 148 runs with a .241 batting average and a .309 on-base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with seven home runs and 16 RBIs, while Yandy Diaz has added six home runs and 20 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Drew Rasmussen, who is 1-3 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 35.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Brewers will beat the Rays 

• The Rays have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last six day games following a loss.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Brewers have led after 3 innings in each of their last three day games against the Rays.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rays' last nine day games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Brewers' last six games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in six of the Rays' last seven day games at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in six of the Brewers' last seven games as road underdogs.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Taylor Walls has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Rays as home favorites against the Brewers.
• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in three of the Rays' last six home games against NL opponents.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five Sunday day appearances.
• Brandon Lowe has scored at least one run in nine of his last 10 Sunday day appearances with the Rays as favorites.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded seven strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 Sunday day appearances.
• Josh Lowe has recorded a Single in five of his last six appearances.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Chourio has hit at least one home run in four of the Brewers' last nine day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Rhys Hoskins has recorded a Double in four of the Brewers' last five games.
• Jackson Chourio has scored a run in each of the Brewers' last three games as road underdogs.
• William Contreras has recorded a Single in 10 of his last 11 appearances with the Brewers as road underdogs.
• Rhys Hoskins has recorded a hit in each of his seven previous appearances against the Rays after playing the previous day.

Brewers vs Rays Prediction 

Tampa Bay has picked up two badly needed wins to start this series, and they will look for the sweep here. The Rays are just 11-16 at home this year, while the Brewers are 7-14 on the road. Milwaukee has scored just six runs in their last three games, but they will face Rasmussen, who has allowed 3, 3, and 4 earned runs in his last three starts. The Rays have been inconsistent on the mound and at the plate, and they will face Patrick, who has allowed 3, 3, 2, and 2 earned runs in his last four starts. I know the Brewers have not hit the ball very well in the series, but I think they have a slight advantage on the mound in this spot. Take Milwaukee here.