Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Prediction 5/10/25 MLB Picks

The projected starting pitcher for the Cubs is Brad Keller, who is 0-0 in zero starts this season, with a 3.78 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 16.2 innings.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets (25-14, 14-3 Home) lost to the Diamondbacks and Cardinals but got revenge against Arizona with two wins in three games to clinch the latest series on the road. The Mets returned to the Big Apple and opened the current series against the Cubs with a 7-2 victory. Juan Soto led the offense with two RBI, while Clay Holmes got the win after allowing one run on three hits with five strikeouts and three walks in 6.0 innings of work.

This year, the Mets average 4.82 runs per game (7th in the MLB) on a .252/.333/.428 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Mets’ staff has a 2.82 ERA (2nd) and 1.25 WHIP (13th). Pete Alonso leads the Mets with a .324 batting average, nine home runs, and 34 RBI this season.

Tylor Megill will take the mound for the Mets on Saturday. The 29-year-old right-hander has a 3-2 record in seven starts this year with a 2.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 36.0 innings.

Why the Mets will beat the Cubs

• The Mets have won each of their last five home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have lost four of their last five games.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games following a win.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line each of their last four road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Mets have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against the Cubs at Citi Field.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs' last six games as underdogs against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Mets' last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in five of the Cubs' last six games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in four of the Mets' last five home games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for ERA this season (2.82).
• The Mets rank T2nd in the league for runs allowed this season (124).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for RBIs this season (221).
• The Cubs rank T1st in the league for steals this season (48).

Cubs vs Mets Prediction

The Mets won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including four of the last five. This is not an easy game to bet on as both teams are playing well, but I am giving a slight advantage to the Mets because the Cubs will start Brad Keller, who hasn't started a single game this year. I know that Megill failed to impress in his last two starts, but he still has very good numbers on the season, and he should win this pitching matchup. Also, the Mets are 14-3 at home, which is another reason I am backing them.