Braves vs Pirates Prediction 5/10/25 MLB Picks

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 13-26 this year after they won game one by a score of 3-2 on Friday night. Pittsburgh led 3-0 in the sixth inning, but they barely hung on for the win in the ninth. The Pirates recorded five hits in the game and they were led by McCutchen, Canario, and Triolo, who all had one RBI in the win. Pittsburgh started Falter, who allowed two hits and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Santana allowed two earned runs in the ninth, but still got the save. 

Prior to this series, the Pirates lost all three against the Cardinals and all three against the Padres. Pittsburgh has lost seven of their last eight games and they are currently last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.25 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a .244 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 121 runs with a .218 batting average and a .298 on base percentage this season. Oneil Cruz has led Pittsburgh with eight home runs and 18 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added five home runs and 19 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Andrew Heaney, who is 2-3 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 39.2 innings pitched this year.

Why the Braves will beat the Pirates 

• The Pirates have lost each of their last seven day games after playing the previous day.
• The Braves have won each of their last five games against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games after playing the previous day.
• The Braves have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Braves have led after 5 innings in three of their last four day games against the Pirates at PNC Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates' last four games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Braves' last four games as road favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in seven of the Pirates' last eight games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in eight of the Braves' last 10 games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Jared Triolo has hit a home run in two of his last three home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has recorded three RBIs in three of his last four appearances against the Braves at PNC Park.
• Adam Frazier has scored at least one run in each of his last four home appearances against the Braves after playing the previous day.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one Single in each of the Pirates' last seven games against the Braves at PNC Park.
• Andrew Heaney has recorded four or more strikeouts in 16 of his last 17 appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates' last seven home games against the Braves.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Austin Riley has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with the Braves as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Matt Olson has scored at least one run in 10 of the Braves' last 12 games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Michael Harris has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Braves' last eight road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Alex Verdugo has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Michael Harris has hit at least one home run in three of the Braves' last four games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.

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Braves vs Pirates Prediction 

Pittsburgh was able to snap their losing streak with a win in game one of this series and they will look to go 2-0 with Don Kelly as the interim manager. The Pirates are 8-12 at home this year, while the Braves are 6-14 on the road. Atlanta has played pretty well over the last two weeks, but they are still trying to bounce back after the slow start to the season. The Pirates are starting Heaney, who has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts. The Braves are going with Smith-Shawver, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. Take the Braves here.