Brewers vs Rays Prediction 5/9/25 MLB Picks

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 16-21 this season after they lost all three games against Philadelphia by scores of 4-8, 0-7, and 6-7. In their game three loss, Tampa Bay led 5-1 in the seventh inning, but they allowed the Phillies to tie the game and came up short in the 10th inning. The Rays recorded 14 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Diaz, who went 1-5 with one home run and three RBIs in the loss. TB started Pepiot, who allowed two hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings, while Uceta allowed four hits and three earned runs in just 0.2 innings in the eighth. 

Prior to that series, the Rays won two out of three against the Yankees, but did lose all three against the Royals before that. Tampa Bay has lost seven of its last nine games, and they are currently fourth in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.80 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 141 runs with a .243 batting average and a .309 on-base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with seven home runs and 16 RBIs, while Yandy Diaz has added six home runs and 20 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Zack Littell, who is 2-5 with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 41.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Rays will beat the Brewers 

• The Rays have won seven of their last eight games following an extra-innings loss.
• The Brewers have lost four of their last five games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as home favorites against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games against AL East opponents.
• The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games against AL East opponents.

Why the Brewers will beat the Rays 

• The Rays have lost each of their last seven games at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
• The Brewers have won each of their last seven Friday night games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last 15 Friday night games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
• The Brewers have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight Friday night games as road underdogs.
• The Brewers have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against the Rays.

Total Runs Facts

• Eleven of the Rays' last 12 home games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Brewers' last four games as underdogs against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in eight of the Brewers' last nine road games against American League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rays' last five games as home favorites.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in three of the Rays' last four home games.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Rays as favorites against the Brewers.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one RBI in three of the Rays' last four home games against NL opponents.
• Yandy Diaz has scored at least one run in four of the Rays' last five games against NL opponents at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
• Ha-Seong Kim has recorded at least one hit in seven of his last eight appearances.
• Josh Lowe has recorded a Single in six of his last seven appearances in night games.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Rhys Hoskins has recorded a Double in each of the Brewers' last three games against AL opponents.
• Rhys Hoskins has hit a home run in three of his last 10 appearances with the Brewers as road underdogs against AL opponents.
• Jose Quintana has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Rhys Hoskins has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five road appearances against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Jose Quintana has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with his team as an underdog against AL East opponents.
• Jackson Chourio has scored a run in four of his last five appearances after not playing the previous day.
• William Contreras has recorded a Single in 13 of his last 14 appearances with the Brewers as underdogs.
• Sal Frelick has recorded at least one hit in 19 of his last 20 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.

Brewers vs Rays Prediction 

Tampa Bay is coming off a very rough series against the Phillies, and they will look to bounce back here. The Rays are just 9-16 at home this year, while the Brewers are 7-12 on the road. Milwaukee has won three of their last four games, but they allowed nine to Houston on Wednesday, and they will be starting Quintana, who allowed six earned runs to Chicago last time out. The Rays are going with Littell, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The Tampa Bay pitching staff was awful against the Phillies, but I think Littell can limit the damage for about six innings. Take the under here.