Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 5/9/25 MLB Picks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Atlanta Braves

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pittsburgh Pirates

Recent betting trends in games played between the Braves and Pirates

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Braves vs Pirates game

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Braves opened up the 2025 season with losses in sweeps versus the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers, then a two-game tie with the Miami Marlins. A series victory versus Philly came next, then two more defeats versus Tampa Bay and Toronto. After a sweep over the Twins came series victories versus the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Rockies before another set loss to the Dodgers. Atlanta won their first two games versus the Reds this past week, then on Wednesday, the Braves took a tough loss, 4-3. 

In the Thursday finale, the Braves eked out a 5-4 victory in 11 innings. Starter Spencer Schwellenbach lasted 6.0 innings with one earned run on five hits and two walks alongside six strikeouts. 

As a starter for Friday’s matchup, Atlanta is sending out Bryce Elder. So far this year, Elder is 2-1 with a 5.06 ERA in six starts across 32.0 innings. Elder is 18-14 with a 4.26 ERA in 57 games (56 starts) over his MLB career. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

Over on the Pirates’ side, they lost their first three series this season versus the Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, and New York Yankees. Pittsburgh won a set over the Cardinals before a sweep by the Reds and a series win over the Nationals. The Pirates were swept by Cleveland, then beat the Angels in a set over the next pair. Set defeats versus the Dodgers, Cubs, and Padres came next, then losses to the Cardinals in their first two outings. During Tuesday’s 2-1 defeat, the Pirates came up with just four team hits, but held St. Louis to four on the other side as well. 

In Wednesday’s finale versus St. Louis, the Pirates took yet another defeat, this time in a shutout, 5-0. Pittsburgh was out-hit in that one, 11-4, and didn’t look great on either side of the ball. Starter Mitch Keller finished with 6.0 innings, three earned, seven hits, and three walks alongside six strikeouts in the losing effort. 

In the starter slot for Friday, it’s looking like the Pirates will send out Bailey Falter. This year, Falter is 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA in seven starts over 37.1 innings. In his career, Falter is 19-26 with a 4.67 ERA in 95 games (66 starts). 

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Braves have lost each of their last three games as favorites after going to extra innings.
• The Pirates have won seven of their last eight games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs against the Braves following a loss.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games against NL Central opponents following a home win.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in four of their last five home games against National League opponents.
• The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight Friday night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last seven games against National League opponents.
• The Braves have won four of their last five games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games against National League opponents.
• The road team has covered the run line in each of the Braves' last three games.
• The Braves have led after 5 innings in five of their last six road games against NL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the last eight games between the Braves and Pirates at PNC Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Braves' last 10 games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in six of the Pirates' last seven games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in seven of the Braves' last nine games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.

Braves vs Pirates Prediction 

I’ll go with the Braves in this one. Atlanta should get a pretty good start out of Elder. He’s 2-0 in his last trio, posting 17.0 combined innings with six earned runs on 14 hits and seven walks. Elder is coming off 5.0 innings with two earned on four hits and two walks in a win over the Dodgers on May 4. He’ll put Atlanta in a nice spot if he can notch another quality outing. 

The Braves had a hard time getting rid of a persistent Cincinnati team on Thursday but eventually got the job done. I like Atlanta to regroup and fire off another win in Friday’s opener.