Phillies vs Rays Prediction 5/7/25 MLB Picks

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 16-19 this year after they lost the first game in this series on Tuesday night. Tampa Bay had trouble at the plate for most of the game, but they did score two late runs before their rally fell short. The Rays recorded six hits in the game, and they were led by Diaz, who went 1-2 with one home run and two RBIs in the loss. Tampa Bay started Rasmussen, who allowed five hits and three earned runs over 4.1 innings in the loss, while Englert allowed five hits and four earned runs in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Rays won two out of three against the Yankees, but did lose all three against the Royals before that. Tampa Bay has lost five of its last seven games, and they are currently fourth in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.69 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 135 runs with a .243 batting average and a .310 on-base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with six home runs and 14 RBIs, while Jonathan Aranda has added five home runs and 17 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Shane Baz, who is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 35.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Phillies will beat the Rays 

• The Phillies have won each of their last seven games against the Rays.
• The Rays have lost nine of their last 10 games at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
• The road team has covered the run line in eight of the last nine games between the Phillies and Rays.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games against opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Phillies' last six night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Rays' last six home games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in five of the Rays' last six home games.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in five of the Phillies' last six road games against AL East opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Ha-Seong Kim has recorded a Single in each of his last five appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in each of the Rays' last two home games against NL East opponents.
• Yandy Diaz has scored a run in five of his last six home appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Rays' last five games as underdogs against NL opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in each of his last five appearances with the Phillies against AL opponents.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded a Double in three of the Phillies' last four road games.
• Kyle Schwarber has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances against AL East opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five appearances against AL East opponents.
• Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies' last nine road games against AL opponents.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances in night games against AL East teams that held a losing record.

Phillies vs Rays Prediction 

Philadelphia was able to stay hot and get another win on Tuesday night, and they are getting closer to the Mets in the race for the NL East. The Phillies are just 7-9 on the road this year, but they have been one of the best teams in the MLB over the last two weeks. The Rays are just 9-14 at home so far this season, and they are starting Baz, who has allowed 7, 0, and 5 earned runs in his last three outings. The Phillies are starting Sanchez, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. Take Philadelphia to get another win in the series here.