Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction 5/5/25 MLB Picks

St. Louis Cardinals (16-19) vs Pittsburgh Pirates (12-23)

Game Info: Monday, May 5, 2025 at 7:45 pm (Busch Stadium)

C. Mlodzinski (R) vs M. Mikolas (R)

Betting Odds: St. Louis Cardinals -148 / Pittsburgh Pirates +124 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: MLB.TV

In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Cardinals prediction for this MLB game on Monday, May 5th at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 12-23 this year after they lost all three games against the Padres by scores of 4-9, 1-2, and 0-4. In their game three loss, the Pirates fell behind in the first two innings of the game and could never get back into the game for the loss. The Pirates recorded eight hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Bart, Hayes, Pham, and Gorski, who all had two hits in the loss. Pittsburgh started Heaney, who allowed eight hits and four earned runs over 3.2 innings for the loss, while four relievers combined for 5.1 scoreless innings in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Pirates lost two out of three against the Cubs and two out of three against the Dodgers. Pittsburgh has lost seven of its last eight games, and they are currently last in the NL Central. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.27 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .242 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 114 runs with a .223 batting average and a .306 on-base percentage this season. Oneil Cruz has led Pittsburgh with eight home runs and 18 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added four home runs and 17 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Carmen Mlodzinski, who is 1-3 with a 6.58 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP over 26.0 innings pitched this year. 

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals are 16-19 this season after they won two out of three against the Mets by scores of 3-9, 6-5, and 5-4. In their game three win, St. Louis trailed 4-2 in the third inning, but they scored the last three runs in the game for the win. The Cardinals recorded nine hits in the game, and they were led by Burleson, who went 1-4 with one home run and two RBIs in the win. St. Louis started Pallante, who allowed nine hits and four earned runs over 3.1 innings, while McGreevy pitched the final 5.2 innings to get the win. 

Prior to that series, the Cardinals split four games with the Reds and won two out of three against the Brewers. St. Louis has won four of their last six games, and they are currently fourth in the NL Central standings. The St. Louis pitching staff has a 4.32 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .247 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 161 runs with a .259 batting average and a .333 on-base percentage this season. Lars Nootbaar has led St. Louis with five home runs, 18 RBIs, and four stolen bases, while Brendan Donovan has added three home runs and 19 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for St. Louis is Miles Mikolas, who is 1-2 with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 29.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Cardinals will beat the Pirates 

  • The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight games against National League opponents.
  • The Cardinals have won four of their last five games against the Pirates following a home win.
  • The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the run line in six of their last seven night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Cardinals have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
  • The Cardinals have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

  • Each of the Cardinals' last five games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Four of the Pirates' last five road games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Pirates' last 10 night games at Busch Stadium.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last 10 games between the Pirates and Cardinals at Busch Stadium.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

  • Brendan Donovan has recorded a Double in five of the Cardinals' last six games at Busch Stadium against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
  • Brendan Donovan has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Cardinals' last eight games against NL Central opponents at Busch Stadium.
  • Miles Mikolas has recorded four or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances against the Pirates at Busch Stadium.
  • Willson Contreras has recorded at least one Single in each of the Cardinals' last six games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Lars Nootbaar has scored at least one run in each of the Cardinals' last six games as home favorites.
  • Willson Contreras has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cardinals' last eight night games.
  • Masyn Winn has hit a home run in five of his last 14 appearances with the Cardinals as favorites against NL opponents.
  • Brendan Donovan ranks T5th in the league in Hits (43) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

  • Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in each of the Pirates' last two night games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Pirates' last five road games.
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one Single in each of the Pirates' last eight night games.
  • Bryan Reynolds has recorded a hit in each of the Pirates' last 10 games as road underdogs against the Cardinals.
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded at least one Double in three of the Pirates' last four road games against the Cardinals.
  • Jack Suwinski has scored a run in six of his last seven road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Cardinals rank T28th in the league for triples this season (1).
  • The Cardinals rank 4th in the league for batting average this season (.259).
  • The Pirates rank 28th in the league for runs scored this season (114).
  • The Pirates rank T28th in the league for home runs this season (25).

Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction 

Pittsburgh comes into this matchup really struggling over the last week, and they are last in the NL Central by a decent margin. The Pirates are 5-11 on the road this year, while the Cardinals are 11-6 at home. St. Louis did have to play a doubleheader on Sunday against the Mets, which was their second in the last week, so they may be short on available arms for this contest. Neither starting pitcher has very good numbers coming into this game, but I have to fade Mlodzinski here, as he has allowed a ton of baserunners. Take the Cardinals to get the win by at least two runs. 

David’s Pick Cardinals -1.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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