New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 5/5/25 MLB Picks

The projected starting pitcher for the Mets is Griffin Canning, who is 4-1 in six starts this season, with a 2.61 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 31.0 innings.

Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks (18-16, 8-8 Home) won just one of the previous five series, and that was against the Mets in New York. The D-backs lost to the Cubs, Rays, Braves, and Phillies. They did salvage the series in Philly with a Game 3 extra-inning win. In that 11-9 win, Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo led the team with three RBI apiece, while Eduardo Rodriguez pitched for 5.1 innings in a no-decision, allowing four runs (three earned) on five hits with ten strikeouts and four walks. Shelby Miller was credited with the win.

This year, the Diamondbacks average 5.18 runs per game (4th in the MLB) on a .247/.330/.431 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Diamondbacks’ staff has a 4.49 ERA (25th) and 1.30 WHIP (20th). Geraldo Perdomo leads the Diamondbacks with a .292 batting average, five home runs, and 29 RBI this season.

Ryne Nelson will take the mound for the Diamondbacks on Monday. The 27-year-old right-hander has a 1-0 record in zero starts this year with a 5.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 17.0 innings.

Why the Mets will beat the Diamondbacks

• The Mets have won each of their last four games as road underdogs against NL West opponents following a road loss.
• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last four games as home favorites against the Mets following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine home games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six Monday home games.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last five night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Mets' last 10 night games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Diamondbacks' last eight home games following an extra innings win have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in seven of the last eight games between the Mets and Diamondbacks.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last five games as road underdogs.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank T4th in the league for triples this season (6).
• The Diamondbacks rank 4th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.431).
• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (322).
• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for runs allowed this season (112).

Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction

These teams have traded wins in the last couple of years, as each recorded five in the previous ten H2H encounters. Arizona won the series against New York this season, but the Mets opened it with a win, and I am backing the visitors to open this one with a win as well. Ryne Nelson is demoted to the bullpen from his starter role, but will get a start on Monday due to an injury to Merrill Kelly. He shut the Mets out in 4.0 innings in his previous game against them this season, but Nelson allowed a .320 BA in 75 at-bats against New York in his career. I highly doubt he will keep the Mets off the scoreboard here. Griffin Canning, on the other hand, is enjoying the best season of his career and has allowed more than a run in just one of his last five starts. Canning allowed a .175 BA in 40 at-bats against the D-backs. I am backing the Mets to win.