Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction 4/26/25 MLB Picks

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 14-10 on the year and play the Twins, Blue Jays, and Nationals next. The Cleveland Guardians are batting .235 on the season, have a .306 OBP, and a .386 slugging percentage. The Cleveland Guardians' pitching staff has a 3.94 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. Steven Kwan leads the Cleveland Guardians with 32 hits and 14 RBI, while Jose Ramirez and Gabriel Arias have combined for 42 hits and 23 RBI.

Ben Lively and Doug Nikhazy get the ball for the Cleveland Guardians.

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Guardians have won three of their last four games as underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last three games as road favorites against the Guardians following a loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites against the Guardians following a home loss.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in each of their last six Saturday day games against American League opponents.
• The Guardians have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as home underdogs against American League opponents.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Guardians have lost each of their last nine day games on the first leg of a doubleheader.
• The Red Sox have won each of their last five games against AL Central opponents following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last five games as favorites against AL Central opponents following a home loss.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in three of their last four day games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games against AL East opponents.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Guardians' last five home games against the Red Sox.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians' last nine games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Lane Thomas has scored a run in each of his last four appearances against the Red Sox.
• Jose Ramirez has hit at least one home run in three of the Guardians' last four games against the Red Sox at Progressive Field.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one Single in each of the Guardians' last nine games against AL opponents that held a winning record.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Rafael Devers has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in day games against AL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances with the Red Sox as favorites against AL Central opponents.
• Jarren Duran has recorded a Double in three of the Red Sox's last four games against AL opponents.
• Wilyer Abreu has recorded an RBI in each of the Red Sox's last four games against the Guardians.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox's last 11 games against AL opponents.
• Alex Bregman has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances.

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Game 1 Prediction: It’s nearly impossible to get behind Houck when he’s allowed 30 hits and 21 earned runs in his first 24.2 innings. Houck also has 11 walks with 18 strikeouts, so his control is an issue as well. Lively has been solid this season, which includes allowing 20 hits and eight runs in his last 20.2 innings. There’s a clear pitching advantage for the Guardians in the doubleheader opener. I’ll side with the Guardians. 

Game 2 Prediction: Buehler is getting his feet under him, and he’s had a strong month of April, allowing 18 hits and nine runs through 23.1 innings. Buehler showed what he’s capable of in his first few seasons with the Dodgers, and he’s showing flashes of getting back to that point. Nikhazy is making his major league debut, and I have a rule backing pitchers making their first career start. There’s no sample size, and we have no idea what to expect. Nikhazy is also a low-level prospect for the Guardians, and it’s not even a guarantee he’ll be a full-time starter in the MLB, as his sinker style could turn him into a reliever. I like the Red Sox to win game 2.