New Mexico State vs Sam Houston State Prediction 10/21/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

The New Mexico State Aggies and the Sam Houston State Bearkats meet Wednesday in college football action from Bowers Stadium in Huntsville. Here’s a New Mexico State vs Sam Houston prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best New Mexico State vs Sam Houston pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview

The Aggies haven’t had a ton of success so far this year when it comes to the win column. New Mexico State kicked things off with a loss to Florida State, then blew out Mercyhurst in game two. Game three was a loss to Hawaii, then another loss to New Mexico. After a victory over Western Kentucky, New Mexico State lost to Florida International for a 2-4 start.

In the Florida International game back on October 7, the Aggies could only muster a second-quarter field goal before halftime and went into the break with a 10-3 deficit. New Mexico State was shut out the rest of the way and ended up losing the game 22-3. QB Adam Damante was 9-of-22 for 104 yards and a pick. James Jones carried 15 times for 89 yards.

Sam Houston State Bearkats Betting Preview

Over on the Sam Houston side, they’ve been struggling even worse this year so far. The Bearkats lost to Troy and Tulsa in their first two outings before beating Nicholls 59-0 on September 19. Sam Houston has since lost three straight, falling to Texas Tech, Liberty and Western Kentucky in succession during that time for a 1-5 overall record thus far.

Matched up against Western Kentucky on October 14, the Bearkats gave up a touchdown and a field goal before they could get on the board ahead of a 10-3 halftime deficit. The Hilltoppers would add a couple more field goals from there and Sam Houston lost 16-3. QB Landyn Locke was 13-of-30 for 112 yards and a pick. MJ Dowdy rushed 14 times for 55 yards in the loss.

New Mexico State Aggies @ Sam Houston State Bearkats Betting Trends: Week 8

Sam Houston State Bearkats Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 8, Landan Brown ranks 4th amongst qualified players for catch rate (93.8%) this season.

New Mexico State Aggies Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 8, Nick Session/Caleb Nix/George Mullins/Tony Newsome Jr./Tay’vion Lawson lead the Conference USA for interceptions (2) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Sam Houston State ranks 4th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (137.8).
• Sam Houston State ranks 134th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (95.0).
• New Mexico State ranks 123rd among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (-4.0).
• New Mexico State ranks T119th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (112).

New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Prediction

I’ll stick with Sam Houston but there’s not a lot to get excited about here. The Bearkats are coming off a pretty limp offensive performance versus Western Kentucky, putting up just 12 first downs, 177 total yards and 2-of-13 on third-down tries. The nine penalties for 100 yards didn’t help either. Sam Houston has just six combined points in the last two games.

As for New Mexico State, they notched just 12 first downs, 230 yards, three turnovers and 3-of-12 on third downs along the way to just 22:06 in time of possession during their loss to FIU. The Aggies defense was pretty good (220 yards allowed) but the offense didn’t do them any favors. This is a winnable game for New Mexico State if they play well.

Andrew Jett's Pick: Sam Houston State Bearkats +2.5