Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 4/25/25 MLB Picks

Taijuan Walker will take the mound for the Phillies on Friday. The 32-year-old right-hander has a 1-1 record in four starts this year with a 2.29 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 19.2 innings.

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs (16-10, 8-5 Home) got revenge for the Tokyo series at the start of the season and two losses to the Los Angeles Dodgers with a pair of home wins. The Cubs are now 4-3 against the reigning champions. Before that series, the Cubs beat the Diamondbacks in two of three games in Chicago. On Wednesday, the Cubs defeated the Dodgers 7-6 after scoring seven runs in the 4th and 5th innings. Pete Crow-Armstrong led the team with four RBI, while Matthew Boyd got the win after allowing six runs (three earned) on ten hits with four strikeouts and one walk over 6.0 innings of work.

This season, the Cubs average 6.27 runs per game (1st in the MLB) on a .265/.346/.460 slash line. Regarding pitching, the Cubs’ staff has a 4.17 ERA (17th) and 1.36 WHIP (22nd). Kyle Tucker leads the Cubs with a .314 batting average, seven home runs, and 25 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Cubs is Colin Rea, who is 0-0 in two starts this season, with a 1.32 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 13.2 innings.

Why the Cubs will beat the Phillies

• The Phillies have lost each of their last seven road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The home team has won five of the Cubs' last six games.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in three of their last four day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games at Wrigley Field against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Phillies' last eight road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Cubs' last six games as favorites against the Phillies have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in seven of the Phillies' last eight road games against NL Central opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in four of the Cubs' last five home games against NL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for triples this season (8).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for RBIs this season (160).
• The Phillies rank T3rd in the league for walks this season (108).
• The Phillies rank 28th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.258).

Phillies vs Cubs Prediction

The Phillies won eight of the previous ten H2H encounters, while the teams have traded wins in the last four. Taijuan Walker struggled in his last start against the Cubs, posting a 16.20 ERA in 1.2 innings, while he allowed a .301 BA in 93 at-bats against the Cubs in his career. Rea, on the other hand, allowed a .194 BA in 67 at-bats against the Phillies. He is a relief pitcher but was solid in his last start, and I am backing him to keep the Phillies at bay in the opening four innings - he'll probably leave the mound after that. The Cubs have the best offense in the MLB right now, and I am confident they can prevail in this one.