Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction 4/22/25 MLB Picks

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 13-11 this year after they won three out of four against the White Sox by scores of 10-3, 4-3, 4-8, and 4-2. In Monday’s win, the Red Sox trailed 1-0 in the first inning, but they scored the next four runs and were able to hang on for the win. The Red Sox recorded eight hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Campbell, who went 2-3 with two RBIs and one walk in the win. Boston started Buehler, who allowed four hits and one earned run over 7.0 innings, while Slaten pitched the ninth for the save. 

Prior to that series, the Red Sox won two out of three against the Rays, but did lose two out of three against the White Sox before that. Boston has won five of their last six games, and they are currently battling with Toronto for second in the AL East. The Boston pitching staff has a 4.03 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a .250 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 108 runs with a .246 batting average and a .326 on-base percentage this season. Alex Bregman has led Boston with four home runs and 16 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added five home runs and 15 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Brayan Bello, who is making his first start of the season. 

Why the Mariners will beat the Red Sox 

• The Mariners have won three of their last four games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have lost three of their last four games as favorites against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Mariners have led after 3 innings in six of their last eight games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the last 10 games between the Mariners and Red Sox at Fenway Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Mariners' last five games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mariners' last seven road games.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in eight of the Red Sox's last nine Tuesday games against AL West opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Story has hit at least one home run in three of his four previous appearances against the Mariners at Fenway Park.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one Double in each of the Red Sox's last four games against the Mariners at Fenway Park.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one RBI in each of his four previous appearances against the Mariners at Fenway Park.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one Single in each of the Red Sox's last seven games at Fenway Park against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Rafael Devers has scored at least one run in 11 of the Red Sox's last 12 games as favorites against the Mariners.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of his nine previous appearances at Fenway Park against AL West opponents that held a winning record.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Rowdy Tellez has hit a home run in each of the Mariners' last three road games against AL East opponents.
• Dylan Moore has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances at Fenway Park against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Rowdy Tellez has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four road appearances against AL East opponents.
• Cal Raleigh has recorded at least one Single in nine of the Mariners' last 10 games as road underdogs.
• Cal Raleigh has scored at least one run in each of the Mariners' last six games at Fenway Park.
• Cal Raleigh has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mariners' last 15 road games against opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for hits this season (195).
• The Red Sox rank 27th in the league for hits allowed this season (199).
• The Mariners are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.
• The Mariners rank 4th in the league for walks this season (92).

Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this series playing very well over the last week, but Boston will be at home. The Red Sox are 7-4 at home this year, while the Mariners are 4-5 on the road. Seattle has had plenty of offensive issues over the last few seasons, but they have scored at least eight runs in three of their last four games. The Mariners are starting Miller, who has allowed one earned run over his last two starts (10 IP). Boston has also shown some offensive improvement in their last four games, but they are starting Bello, who hasn’t been great over his first three seasons. Take the Mariners to win on the road here.