Reds vs Orioles Prediction 4/20/25 MLB Picks

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 9-11 this season after they won game two in this series on Saturday afternoon. Baltimore had their lead cut to 5-4 in the sixth inning, but they scored the next four runs in the game to get the win. The Orioles recorded 11 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Laureano, who went 2-4 with two home runs and three RBIs in the win. Baltimore started Young, who allowed seven hits and three earned runs over 4.0 innings, while seven relievers combined to pitch the last six innings in the win. 

Prior to this series, the Orioles won two out of three against the Guardians and split two games with the Blue Jays. Baltimore has won three of their last four games and they are currently fourth in the AL East standings. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.47 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP and a .281 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 96 runs with a .233 batting average and a .306 on base percentage this season. Cedric Mullins has led Baltimore with six home runs and 19 RBIs, while Heston Kjerstad has added three home runs and 12 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Charlie Morton, who is 0-4 with an 8.84 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP over 18.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Orioles will beat the Reds

• The Reds have lost 16 of their last 17 day games against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Orioles have won each of their last three day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven day games against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in four of their last five games against the Reds.
• The Orioles have led after 3 innings in seven of their last nine games against the Reds at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against National League opponents.

Why the Reds will beat the Orioles 

• The Orioles have lost each of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The Reds have won each of their last four games as road underdogs against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line each of their last six home games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as road underdogs.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in three of their last four day games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Orioles' last nine games as home favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Reds' last five road games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in 11 of the Orioles' last 12 day games.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in 10 of the Reds' last 12 road games.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Charlie Morton has recorded five or more strikeouts in 15 of his last 16 appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Cedric Mullins has scored at least one run in four of the Orioles' last five games.
• Cedric Mullins has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Orioles' last five games against NL opponents.
• Ramon Urias has recorded at least one Single in eight of his last nine appearances in day games.
• Cedric Mullins has hit a home run in each of the Orioles' last two games as home favorites.
• Ryan Mountcastle has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances with the Reds as road underdogs against AL opponents.
• Jake Fraley has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances.
• Tyler Stephenson has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jose Trevino has recorded a Double in each of the Reds' last four games as underdogs.
• Jose Trevino has scored at least one run in eight of his last nine appearances at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Tyler Stephenson has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances against opponents that held a losing record.

Reds vs Orioles Prediction 

These two teams have split the first two games in this series, as Cincinnati won game one on Friday by a score of 8-3. The Reds are 4-5 on the road this year, while the Orioles are 5-5 at home. Baltimore is finally starting to get their offense going, as they have scored at least six runs in three of their last four games. I am not sure what Cincinnati is going to do with their starting pitcher, but I don’t see any good options that are going to shutdown this Baltimore lineup. On the other side, Charlie Morton is really struggling and has allowed 18 earned runs over 18.1 innings. Take the over here.