Padres vs Astros Prediction 4/19/25 MLB Picks

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 9-10 this season after they picked up a nice win in game one of this series. Houston had their lead cut to 4-2 and 5-4, but they added an insurance run in the eighth to seal the win. The Astros recorded 12 hits in the game and they were led by Smith, who went 2-4 with two home runs and four RBIs in the win. Houston started Gusto, who allowed nine hits and two earned runs in the win, while King allowed two earned runs and one hit in the seventh. 

Prior to this series, the Astros lost two out of three against the Cardinals, but did win two out of three against the Angels before that. Houston has alternated wins and losses over their last 14 games and they are currently fourth in the AL West standings. The Houston pitching staff has a 3.74 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a .214 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 72 runs with a .223 batting average and a .304 on base percentage this season. Isaac Paredes has led Houston with three home runs and 10 RBIs, while Yordan Alvarez has added two home runs, 10 RBIs, and one stolen base this year. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Hayden Wesneski, who is 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP over 18.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Padres will beat the Astros 

• The Astros have lost each of their last seven games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Padres have won each of their last six games against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games following a home win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games following a road loss.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games as favorites.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as favorites against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Astros' last six games as underdogs against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Padres' last six road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in 15 of the Astros' last 16 home games against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in four of the Padres' last five games as road favorites against AL West opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Isaac Paredes has hit a home run in three of the Astros' last four home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Christian Walker has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 home appearances against the Padres after playing the previous day.
• Jose Altuve has recorded at least one Single in nine of the Astros' last 10 home games against NL opponents.
• Jose Altuve has scored at least one run in seven of the Astros' last eight games against NL West opponents at Daikin Park.
• Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one RBI in three of the Astros' last four games against opponents that held a winning record.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 10 Saturday night appearances against teams that held a losing record.
• Manny Machado has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as a favorite against the Astros.
• Manny Machado has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Padres' last five games as favorites against AL West opponents.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one Double in three of the Padres' last four road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Manny Machado has hit at least one home run in three of the Padres' last four games as favorites against the Astros.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 20 appearances against AL West opponents that held a losing record.

Padres vs Astros Prediction 

San Diego comes into this matchup with one of the best records in the MLB through 20 games, but they will be looking to bounce back from their game one loss. The Padres are just 3-4 on the road this year, while the Astros are 5-5 at home. Houston has not won back to back games so far this year and their offense has been pretty inconsistent. The Astros are going with Wesneski, who has been decent, but I think King and the Padres at a decent price is where I want my money. Take San Diego and fade Houston off of a win.