Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 4/18/25 MLB Picks

Marlins Looking To Rebound After Being Swept By Diamondbacks

Xavier Edwards leads the Marlins with 24 hits including 3 doubles and a team-high 6 stolen bases while Graham Pauley has 4 doubles. Otto Lopez has 16 hits with 5 doubles and a pair of home runs with 9 RBIs and Matt Mervis has a team-high 6 home runs and 12 RBIs so far this year. Kyle Stowers has 18 hits with 3 doubles, a triple, a home run and 10 RBIs but also leads the Marlins with 21 strikeouts so far this season. Griffin Conine’s also chipped in 17 hits with a team-high 6 doubles as well this season.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as favorites against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Marlins have won four of their last five games as underdogs against the Phillies following a loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games against NL East opponents following a home win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in 13 of their last 15 night games against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park following a loss.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Otto Lopez has hit a home run in four of the Marlins' last 17 night games.
• Otto Lopez has recorded a Double in five of his last six appearances with the Marlins as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Otto Lopez has recorded an RBI in each of the Marlins' last three games as underdogs against the Phillies.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances against NL East opponents.
• Otto Lopez has scored at least one run in each of his last four road appearances after playing the previous day.
• Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one Single in each of his last five appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six road appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances in night games.
• Matt Mervis ranks T4th in the league in Home Runs (6) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to add on to their 6-4 win over the San Francisco Giants from Thursday’s series finale to improve to 11-8 on the year. After this series, the Phillies will head on the road for a series against the division rival New York Mets.

Phillies Earn Series Split With Giants

Nick Castellanos has a team-high 21 hits with 5 doubles including 3 home runs and 12 RBIs while Kyle Schwarber has 19 hits with a team-high 6 home runs and 14 RBIs as well on the year. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner each have a team-high 4 stolen bases, with Turner logging 3 doubles while Harper has 4 home runs and 9 RBIs. Max Kepler has 4 doubles and Bryson Stott has 3 doubles while J.T. Realmuto also has 4 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last six home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have lost seven of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in four of their last five home games against teams that held a losing record.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Trea Turner has recorded a Double in three of the Phillies' last four home games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in four of his last five home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Max Kepler has scored at least one run in eight of his last nine appearances with his team as a favorite against NL East opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 11 appearances at Citizens Bank Park against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in seven of his last eight home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances with the Phillies as favorites against NL East opponents.
• J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances at Citizens Bank Park against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks T4th in the league in Home Runs (6) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Phillies' last nine games as favorites against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Marlins' last six games have gone OVER the total runs line.

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

I’m going to take a shot on the Marlins here. I get that Wheeler last season was stronger at home than he was on the road, but Sandy Alcantara is no slouch and while the Marlins were swept against Arizona, the Marlins offensively have brought more to the table so far this season than I thought they would. The Phillies haven’t been anything special against right-handed pitching as of late and I think the Marlins could steal game one here. Give me the Marlins and the plus money.