San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 4/6/25 MLB Picks

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 7-4 this season after they won games one and two in this series by scores of 7-1 and 3-1. In the game two win, Chicago took an early 2-0 lead in the second inning and they were able to cruise to an easy win the rest of the way. The Cubs recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Kelly, who went 2-3 with one home run and four RBIs in the win. Chicago started Boyd, who allowed just five hits over 6.0 innings in the win, while Pearson allowed three hits and one earned run in one relief inning. 

Prior to this series, the Cubs swept the Athletics in three games and split four games with the Diamondbacks. The Chicago pitching staff has a 4.36 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and a .263 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 70 runs with a .249 batting average and a .349 on base percentage this season. Kyle Tucker has led Chicago with four home runs and 12 RBIs, while Seiya Suzuki has added four home runs and 11 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Ben Brown, who is 1-1 with a 5.87 ERA and a 1.96 WHIP over 7.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Padres will beat the Cubs 

• The Padres have won nine of their last 10 games against the Cubs following a loss.
• The Cubs have lost 14 of their last 20 games as home favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in 17 of their last 20 games against the Padres at Wrigley Field following a home win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in 15 of their last 18 games as underdogs against the Cubs following a road loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Cubs' last seven games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Padres' last eight day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in seven of the Cubs' last eight day games against NL West opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in 14 of the Padres' last 18 day games.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Tucker has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four home appearances against the Padres after playing the previous day.
• Justin Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances with his team as a home favorite against NL opponents.
• Kyle Tucker has scored at least one run in each of his last nine Sunday day appearances.
• Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 Sunday appearances against teams that held a winning record.
• Carson Kelly has hit a home run in each of his two previous appearances with the Cubs as favorites.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Martin Maldonado has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last three appearances with his team as a road underdog.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Luis Campusano has scored at least one run in five of his last six road appearances.
• Luis Campusano has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Padres as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 11 appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 

San Diego started the season with seven straight wins, but they have been outscored 10-2 in the first two games of this series and will try to avoid being swept here. Chicago has won five games in a row and they have scored at least seven runs four of those games. The Cubs are starting Ben Brown in this game, who allowed three earned runs over 5.0 innings in his last outing against Oakland. The Padres are going with Hart, who allowed two earned runs over 5.0 innings against Cleveland. I do think this San Diego offense is due to wake up and I don’t love Brown on the mound for the Cubs, so I will take the Padres to win here.