New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction 4/1/25 MLB Picks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New York Mets

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Miami Marlins

Recent betting trends in games played between the Mets and Marlins

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Mets vs Marlins game

New York Mets Betting Preview

New York played the Houston Astros in their opening series over the weekend. The Mets posted a 3-1 loss in the Thursday game but then took a 3-1 victory on Friday. In that matchup, New York’s Juan Soto posted a solo homer, while Mark Vientos (run) and Jesse Winker (walk) each had an RBI and one hit. Starter Tylor Megill logged 5.0 innings with one earned run on three hits and one walk. 

In the Saturday finale, the Mets couldn’t keep it going and ended up falling 2-1. New York got just one hit in that one, courtesy of Soto, who also had the lone RBI. Griffin Canning managed 5.2 innings with two earned in the start. 

On Monday, in game one versus the Marlins, the Mets posted 11 hits on the way to a 10-4 victory. Pete Alonso came away with two runs, a homer, and four RBI. Brandon Nimmo and Luis Torrens (two hits) each homered and had two RBI as well. 

In the starter slot for Tuesday, it’ll be New York’s Kodai Senga. In his one start last year, Senga put up a win, notching nine strikeouts across 5.1 innings and tallying a 3.38 ERA. Senga is 13-7 with a 2.99 ERA in 30 career starts. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

Over on the Marlins’ side, they played a four-game series versus the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend. Miami was able to win the Thursday opener 5-4, then took a 4-3 loss on Friday. Game three was another one-run win and another 5-4 score. In the Sunday finale, the Marlins continued the one-run theme and won the series with a 3-2 victory. Miami’s Griffin Conine had a solo home run, and Derek Hill plated both runs on a 1-for-4 day. 

On Monday, in their opener versus the Mets, Miami gave up seven runs in the fifth inning alone on the way to their loss. Both Otto Lopez and Eric Wagaman posted a homer with two RBI (and five combined hits between them). 

Sandy Alcantara will be the starter for the Tuesday game. Last season, Alcantara missed the entire campaign due to Tommy John surgery, but he’s already seen some action this year. Alcantara started the Thursday opener versus Pittsburgh, posting 4.2 innings with two hits, four walks, and two earned runs. 

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won four of their last five games as underdogs against the Mets following a home loss.
• The Mets have lost three of their last four games as road favorites against the Marlins following a road win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games against the Marlins following a win.
• The Mets have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games against National League opponents.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last seven games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last three games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have covered the run line each of their last seven games at LoanDepot Park against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five Tuesday night home games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last three night games against the Marlins.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets' last six road games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Marlins' last five games as home underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last eight home games against NL East opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last eight Tuesday games against NL East opponents.

Mets vs Marlins Prediction 

I’m going to try the Marlins in this one. It’d be nice to see Alcantara get into a quality start this time, though. He just missed the five-inning mark on Thursday in the Miami win, notching a respectable seven strikeouts. The four walks were a bit troubling, but if he can keep the free passes under control this time, things should be better. 

On Monday, Miami got a rough couple of innings in the fifth and sixth, leading to a combined 10 earned runs surrendered by starters Cal Quantrill and George Soriano. The offense wasn’t too bad overall, but Lopez and Wagaman did most of the work. I’d like to see a more complete effort across the board in the Tuesday game, but if all goes well, the Marlins should be in it.