Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Prediction MLB Picks 7/19/24

Nationals Need Better Pitching 

The Washington Nationals are 44-53 this season and they have won two of their last three games. Washington is coming off of a series win against Milwaukee, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Nationals lost all three against the Mets, lost three out of four against the Cardinals, and split four games with the Mets. Washington is 2-6 in their last eight games and they are fourth in the NL East. 

The Washington pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .254 opponent batting average. The Nationals offense has scored 402 runs with a .239 batting average and a .308 on base percentage. CJ Abrams is batting .268 with 15 home runs and 48 RBI’s for the Nationals this season. Washington has allowed at least six runs in eight of their last ten games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Frankie Montas, who is 4-7 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 84.1 innings pitched this year. Montas has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Patrick Corbin, who is 1-9 with a 5.57 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP over 105.0 innings pitched this season. Corbin has allowed at least three earned runs in four straight starts. 

Why the Reds will beat the Nationals

• The Reds have won each of their last six games against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Nationals have lost four of their last five home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last six road games against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line each of their last three night games against teams that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Reds' last six games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Nationals' last five home games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Nationals' last three games.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last three road games against National League opponents.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Jesse Winker has recorded at least one Double in three of the Nationals' last four games as home underdogs.
• Jesse Winker has scored at least one run in seven of the Nationals' last eight games as home underdogs against NL opponents.
• Lane Thomas has hit a home run in four of the Nationals' last seven games at Nationals Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Joey Gallo has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances at Nationals Park against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Jesse Winker has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jesse Winker has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances at Nationals Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Lane Thomas has recorded at least one Single in 10 of the Nationals' last 11 games.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Jeimer Candelario has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 11 appearances with his team as a road favorite.
• Jeimer Candelario has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with his team as a road favorite.
• Jake Fraley has recorded at least one Single in each of his last five road appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded a Double in each of the Reds' last four night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Jonathan India has scored a run in eight of his last nine appearances after not playing the previous day.
• TJ Friedl has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Reds as favorites against the Nationals.
• Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances against NL opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Washington Nationals rank 27th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.369).
• The Washington Nationals rank 26th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.254).
• The Cincinnati Reds rank 5th in the league for triples this season (20).
• The Cincinnati Reds rank 26th in the league for batting average this season (.231).

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Prediction 

Cincinnati started the season playing pretty inconsistently, but they have been better over the last month and they are scoring more consistently over the last seven games. The Reds are 22-22 on the road, while the Nationals are 20-24 at home this year. Washington has played poorly over the last month and their pitching staff has been a mess. The Nats will start Patrick Corbin in this game, who has some awful numbers on the season and hasn’t been very sharp recently. The Reds are going with Montas, who also has some poor numbers on the season, but has been sharp in his last four outings. I don’t trust Corbin at all, so my Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals prediction is for the Reds to pick up the road win.