Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Yankees Prediction 3/29/25 MLB Picks

Nestor Cortes will take the mound for the Brewers on Saturday. The 30-year-old right-hander had a 9-10 record in 2024 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 174.0 innings.

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees were the best team in the American League last season after getting to a 94-68 record, two wins ahead of the Cleveland Guardians and three more than the Baltimore Orioles. The Yanks defeated the Royals and Guardians to reach the World Series, where the Los Angeles Dodgers beat them in five games. On the opening day of this season, Austin Wells and Anthony Volpe scored a home run apiece to give the Yankees a 4-2 victory over the Brewers. Carlos Rodon recorded a win after allowing one run (homer) on four hits with seven strikeouts and two walks in 5.1 innings of work.

Last season, the Yankees averaged 5.03 runs per game (3rd in the MLB) on a .248/.333/.429 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, New York’s staff had a 4.12 ERA (9th) and 1.24 WHIP (12th). Aaron Judge led the Yankees with a .322 batting average, 58 home runs, and 144 RBI last season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Yankees is Max Fried, who went 11-10 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 174.0 innings pitched in 2024.

Why the Brewers will beat the Yankees

• The Brewers have won seven of their last eight games as road underdogs against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Yankees have lost seven of their last eight games as home favorites against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last 10 road games against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 home games following a home win.
• The Yankees have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last eight games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Yankees will beat the Brewers

• The Yankees have won each of their last three games against the Brewers.
• The Brewers have lost three of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last three games against the Brewers.
• The Brewers have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Brewers have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six day games.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Brewers' last five games as underdogs against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Fifteen of the Yankees' last 20 home games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Yankees' last five games at Yankee Stadium.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Brewers' last five games as road underdogs.

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Yankees Prediction 

The teams have traded wins in the past few years, each recording five over the previous ten encounters. The Yankees were better in the last three games, including the first duel of this series. Both Cortes and Fried will have their respective debuts with new teams. Cortes played for the Yankees, and he knows these batters well. Fried has been one of the best pitchers in the MLB in the last few years, so I expect dominant performances from these two. I am going with Under. We had six combined runs in the opening game; a similar scenario is likely to happen on Saturday. A solo homer or two won't hurt our chances to win this bet.