Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 3/28/25 MLB Picks

The Chicago Cubs and the Arizona Diamondbacks meet on Friday in MLB action from Chase Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Chicago Cubs will send out Jameson Taillon for the start here, and Taillon was 12-8 with a 3.27 ERA and 125 strikeouts last season. In his career, Taillon is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 18 strikeouts against Arizona. Merrill Kelly will get the nod for the Diamondbacks here and was 5-1 with a 4.03 ERA and 63 strikeouts last season. In his last five starts against the Cubs, Kelly is 2-0 with a 3.34 ERA and 25 strikeouts.

Chicago Cubs Recap

The Chicago Cubs will try to get another notch in the win column after improving to 1-2 on the year, thanks to a 10-6 win over the Diamondbacks in Thursday’s series opener. After this weekend series, the Cubs will head on the road once again for an interleague series against the Athletics.

Cubs Trying To Get Back To .500

Ian Happ has a home run, a double, and four RBIs with a team-high 4 hits, while Miguel Amaya has 3 hits, all doubles, with a team-high 6 RBIs as well on the year. Jon Berti also has 3 hits, while Kyle Tucker has a pair of hits with a double, and Dansby Swanson also has a pair of hits with a double. Matt Shaw, Michael Busch, and Nico Hoerner each have a pair of hits as well, so far this season.

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The underdogs have won eight of the Cubs’ last nine games at Chase Field.
• The Diamondbacks have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Cubs’ last 11 games at Chase Field.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Jameson Taillon has recorded a win in each of his last six Friday appearances against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Jameson Taillon has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against NL West opponents.
• Dansby Swanson has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances after playing the previous day.
• Dansby Swanson has scored at least one run in eight of the Cubs’ last nine night games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances in night games against NL West teams that held a losing record.
• Kyle Tucker has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Kyle Tucker has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one Single in each of the Cubs’ last nine night games against opponents that held a losing record.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks will try to bounce back after dropping Thursday’s series and season opener against the Cubs. After this series, Arizona will meet the Yankees, Nationals, and Orioles.

Diamondbacks Looking To Get Back On Track After Sluggish Start To Year

Gerardo Perdomo led the Diamondbacks with two RBIs, while Eugenio Suarez chipped in a solo home run. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Josh Naylor, and Jake McCarthy each contributed an RBI to cap off the scoring for Arizona in the losing effort, while Ketel Marte went 2 for 5 with a double, and Gabriel Moreno added a pair of hits as well in the loss. Corbin Carroll and Randal Grichuk also contributed a double for Arizona in the defeat. Zac Gallen took the loss for Arizona, falling to 0-1 on the year after allowing four runs on four hits with four walks and four strikeouts over four innings of work.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won 13 of their last 14 games against NL Central opponents following a home loss.
• The Cubs have lost 15 of their last 17 night games against NL West opponents following a road win.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as underdogs against National League opponents following a win.
• The favorites have covered the run line in four of the Cubs’ last five games.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Ketel Marte has hit a home run in three of the Diamondbacks’ last four games against NL Central opponents.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded a win in each of his last five Friday appearances against teams that held a losing record.
• Josh Naylor has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances after playing the previous day.
• Corbin Carroll has scored at least one run in each of the Diamondbacks’ last eight Friday games at Chase Field.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last 14 appearances with the Diamondbacks as home favorites against NL opponents.
• Corbin Carroll has recorded at least one hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last 11 home games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Randal Grichuk has recorded a Double in each of his last five home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Garrett Hampson has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against NL opponents at Chase Field.
• Eugenio Suarez ranks T7th in the league in Home Runs (1) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Cubs’ last nine games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Ten of the Diamondbacks’ last 12 home games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.

Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

I’m on the Diamondbacks in this one. I just have never been a Jameson Taillon fan, and Arizona for me is a much better team than what they showed in Thursday’s matchup, and Gallen’s a better pitcher than that, but he just couldn’t find the strike zone, and when he did, Chicago made him pay. I like Merrill Kelly’s stuff, as I think he’s a strong #2 in this rotation, and I think the Diamondbacks exact some revenge here. Give me Arizona in this game.