Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 3/28/25 MLB Picks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Baltimore Orioles

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Toronto Blue Jays

Recent betting trends in games played between the Orioles and Blue Jays

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Orioles vs Blue Jays game

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Orioles had a very good regular season in 2024, finishing at 91-71 overall for a second-place finish in the American League East. Baltimore made it to the AL Wild Card Series but ended up getting swept by the Kansas City Royals in that matchup. The Orioles will face the Red Sox following this series.

In their 2025 season opener versus Toronto on Thursday, the O’s got off to a great start. Baltimore scored three runs in three different innings on the way to a 12-2 blowout victory. Both Cedric Mullins (five RBI; three hits) and Adley Rutschman (three runs; three RBI; three hits) each had a pair of home runs. 

For the starter job in the Friday game two, Baltimore will send out Charlie Morton. Last year, Morton managed to go 8-10 with a 4.19 ERA in 30 starts total. During the spring, Morton didn’t manage a decision over four starts, compiling a 3.38 ERA with six strikeouts in 8.0 total innings. Over his career, Morton is 138-123 in the regular season, with a 4.01 ERA in 383 games (382 starts) total. 

Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

Over on the Jays’ side, they’re looking to improve on a 74-88 record from last year. That result would leave Toronto in the basement of the American League East, six games behind the Rays at 80-82. 

On Thursday versus Baltimore, the Jays couldn’t get much going at the plate and only came up with four team hits in the defeat. Andres Gimenez had a homer and both the RBI, while Vladimir Guerrero had two walks and a run. 

It’ll be Kevin Gausman in the starting role for the Blue Jays on Friday. Last year, Gausman went 14-11 with a 3.83 ERA in 31 starts. During three starts in Spring Training, Gausman posted a 7.71 ERA with nine strikeouts over 7.0 frames. He’s got a .500 career record at 102-102 overall, alongside a 3.84 ERA in 329 games (290 starts). 

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Blue Jays have won each of their last four night games against the Orioles following a loss.
• The Orioles have lost five of their last six night games against the Blue Jays following a road win.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in three of their last four games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Blue Jays have led after 3 innings in three of their last four home games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four road games against American League opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The underdogs have won 10 of the Orioles' last 11 games.
• The Blue Jays have lost each of their last four games as favorites.
• The road team has covered the run line in each of the Orioles' last six games.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven night games.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in each of their last four road games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Orioles' last four night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Nine of the Blue Jays' last 11 games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in seven of the last eight games between the Orioles and Blue Jays.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Orioles' last seven Friday night games at Rogers Centre.

Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction 

I’m going to lean toward the Orioles. It’ll be interesting to see what Morton can do here; if all goes well this season, he’ll be a potent weapon for Baltimore’s pitching order. Morton does need a bit of a bounce-back effort after last season, though, as he notched an 8-10 run with Atlanta. It was Morton’s first losing season since way back in 2014 with Pittsburgh (6-12). 

On Thursday, the Orioles got a nice start from Zach Eflin with 6.0 innings and two earned runs scored in the fourth inning. Despite four walks, it was a pretty smooth bullpen outing from three different arms as well. Offensively, the Orioles got it going with the long ball in that victory, hitting six of them between four players. 

As for Toronto, it wasn’t a spectacular day on either side of the plate—save for Gimenez’s home run. Starter Jose Berrios was beat up on six earned, nine hits and two walks in 5.0 innings. The bullpen didn’t fare much better, giving up six earned runs from three of the five arms. Needless to say, the Jays need a spark on both sides of the ball in game two. Baltimore will be coming in confident, though, and if they can keep the bats going, the O’s will be tough to keep pace with.