Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 3/28/25 MLB Picks

The projected starting pitcher for the Rockies is Kyle Freeland, who went 5-8 with a 5.24 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 113.1 innings pitched in 2024.

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays missed out on the playoffs last year after finishing with an 80-82 record, six wins ahead of the Blue Jays and 14 behind the division champions, the Yankees. The Rays recorded just one win in the final five spring training games and ended this period with 12 wins and 13 defeats.

Last year, the Rays averaged 3.73 runs per game (29th in the MLB) on a .230/.302/.366 slash line. The Rays' pitching staff had a 3.77 ERA (9th) and 1.20 WHIP (4th). Yandy Diaz was the best offensive player for the Rays, with a .281 batting average, 14 home runs, and 65 RBI last season.

Ryan Pepiot will take the mound for the Rays on Friday. The 27-year-old right-hander had an 8-8 record in 2024 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 130.0 innings.

Why the Rockies will beat the Rays

• The Rays have lost each of their last four games against National League opponents.
• The road team has won each of the Rockies' last three games.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as home favorites.
• The road team has covered the run line in six of the Rays' last eight games.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites against National League opponents.

Why the Rays will beat the Rockies

• The Rockies have lost six of their last seven games.
• The Rays have won five of their last six games against the Rockies.
• The Rays have covered the run line in five of their last six home games against National League opponents.
• The Rockies have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five road games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against the Rockies.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as home favorites.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rays' last four games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Nine of the Rockies' last 12 day games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in 10 of the Rays' last 11 home games.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in seven of the Rockies' last eight day games against AL East opponents.

Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 

The Rays won eight of the previous ten H2H encounters, including five of the last six. Ryan Pepiot has been phenomenal against the Rockies in his career; in 38 at-bats against Colorado's batters, he holds a .132 batting average without allowing a single RBI on just five hits. I don't expect the Rays' offense to explode in this one after having a horrific last year, but their pitching and solid defense should be more than enough to see off the Rockies on the opening day. The Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 86 games, while the Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 90 of their previous 153 games. I am going with Under.