Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction MLB Picks 9/4/24

Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are 67-73 this season and they have lost three of their last four games. Toronto dropped game one in this series on Tuesday, despite having a huge lead early in the game. Prior to this series, the Blue Jays lost two out of three against the Twins, split four games with the Red Sox, and swept the Angels. Toronto is 2-5 in their last seven games and they are last in the AL East. 

The Toronto pitching staff has a 4.37 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .245 opponent batting average. The Blue Jays' offense has scored 596 runs with a .242 batting average and a .314 on-base percentage. Vladimir Guerrero is batting .328 with 28 home runs and 91 RBI’s for the Blue Jays this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Cristopher Sanchez, who is 9-9 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 152.0 innings pitched this year. Sanchez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Bowden Francis, who is 8-3 with a 3.66 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over 78.2 innings pitched this season. Francis has allowed a total of two earned runs in his last four starts (29.0 IP). 

Why the Phillies will beat the Blue Jays

• The Phillies have won five of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Blue Jays have lost four of their last five home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five-day games at Rogers Centre following a home loss.
• The road team has covered the run line in five of the Phillies' last six games.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Phillies' last eight road games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Blue Jays' last four games against National League opponents has gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Blue Jays' last four home games against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last four road games against AL East opponents.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Daulton Varsho has hit a home run in each of the Blue Jays' last two games against the Phillies at Rogers Centre.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded a Double in five of his last six appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Alejandro Kirk has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five appearances at Rogers Centre.
• George Springer has scored a run in each of his last four appearances against the Phillies after playing the previous day.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last six appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Daulton Varsho has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight home appearances.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine Wednesday-day appearances with the Blue Jays as underdogs.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Trea Turner has hit a home run in each of the Phillies' last two-day games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Trea Turner has recorded a Double in four of the Phillies' last five games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Bryce Harper has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Phillies' last six road games against AL opponents.
• Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of the Phillies' last five games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of the Phillies' last six games against AL opponents.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine road appearances against the Blue Jays after playing the previous day.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four road appearances against AL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 

Toronto was able to jump on the Phillies in the first inning on Tuesday, but their pitching staff blew a five-run lead in the loss. The Phillies are 35-31 on the road, while the Blue Jays are 34-34 at home. Philadelphia has played very well over their last ten games and they are starting to play like they did prior to the All-Star break. The Blue Jays have been pretty bad with their pitching staff this year, but they are starting Bowden Francis, who has been electric over the last few weeks. The Phillies are going with Cristopher Sanchez, who has been very solid this year, despite a few poor outings in the last two months. Bowden Francis might be the hottest pitcher in the MLB right now, but I am still going to side with the Phillies at this reasonable number.