Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Prediction MLB Picks 9/4/24

Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals are 75-65 this season and they have lost seven games in a row. Kansas City has lost the first two games in this series and they have allowed 11 runs in the two games. Prior to that series, the Royals lost all four against the Astros, won three out of four against the Guardians, and lost two out of three against the Phillies. Kansas City is 3-9 in their last 12 games and they are third in the AL Central.

The Kansas City pitching staff has a 3.96 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .247 opponent batting average. The Royals offense has scored 666 runs with a .253 batting average and a .310 on-base percentage. Bobby Witt is batting .340 with 30 home runs and 97 RBI’s for the Royals this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Ben Lively, who is 11-8 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 131.0 innings pitched this year. Lively has allowed two earned runs in two of his last three starts. The projected starting pitcher for Kansas City is Seth Lugo, who is 14-8 with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 179.0 innings pitched this season. Lugo has allowed four earned runs or more in three of his last five starts. 

Why the Royals will beat the Guardians

• The Guardians have lost each of their last six Wednesday night road games.
• The Royals have won four of their last five games against AL Central opponents following a home loss.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Wednesday road games.
• The Royals have covered the run line in four of their last five games as home favorites against AL Central opponents following a loss.

Why the Guardians will beat the Royals 

• The Guardians have won eight of their last nine games as road underdogs against the Royals following a road win.
• The Royals have lost each of their last seven games against American League opponents.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against the Royals following a road win.
• The Royals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Royals' last six home games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Guardians' last five games as underdogs against the Royals have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Royals' last six games against American League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Guardians' last three road games.

Kansas City Royals Player Prop Facts

• Vinnie Pasquantino has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last seven home appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Seth Lugo has recorded a win in each of his five previous appearances with the Royals as favorites against AL Central opponents.
• Vinnie Pasquantino has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last 10 appearances at Kauffman Stadium against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Seth Lugo has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Bobby Witt Jr. has hit a home run in two of the Royals' last three games as favorites.
• Bobby Witt Jr. has recorded two or more Singles in five of the Royals' last six home games against AL Central opponents.
• Bobby Witt Jr. has scored at least one run in each of the Royals' last eight Wednesday night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Bobby Witt Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of the Royals' last nine night games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Will Brennan has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven road appearances against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Josh Naylor has recorded at least one RBI in three of the Guardians' last four road games against the Royals.
• Will Brennan has recorded at least one total base in each of his last seven road appearances against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Lane Thomas has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against AL Central opponents at Kauffman Stadium.
• Brayan Rocchio has hit a home run in four of his last nine road appearances with the Guardians against AL opponents.
• Will Brennan has recorded at least one Single in four of his last five appearances at Kauffman Stadium.
• Jose Ramirez has scored at least one run in eight of the Guardians' last nine games as underdogs against the Royals.

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Prediction 

Cleveland comes into this game red hot and they are looking for their fourth win in a row. The Guardians were really struggling about a week ago, but they have turned things around and are pulling away in the AL Central once again. Cleveland is 37-34 on the road, while KC is 41-30 at home this year. Both of these pitchers have been pretty strong all season, but they have had some poor outings recently. I really don’t trust either starter in this spot, so I am going to side with the over in this matchup.