Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction MLB Picks 8/28/24

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 68-64 this year and they have lost four of their last five games. Boston won game two in this series by a score of 6-3 on Tuesday. Prior to this series, the Red Sox lost all three against the Diamondbacks, won two out of three against the Astros, and split four games with the Orioles. Boston is 3-6 in their last nine games and they are third in the AL East. 

The Boston pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .249 opponent batting average. The Red Sox offense has scored 646 runs with a .259 batting average and a .326 on-base percentage. Rafael Devers is batting .290 with 28 home runs and 80 RBI’s for the Red Sox this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Chris Bassitt, who is 9-12 with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over 145.0 innings pitched this year. Bassitt has allowed 14 earned runs in his last three starts (15.0 IP). The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Brayan Bello, who is 11-6 with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 129.0 innings pitched this season. Bello has allowed one earned run in two of his last three starts. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Blue Jays

• The Red Sox have won eight of their last nine night games against the Blue Jays following a win.
• The Blue Jays have lost four of their last five night games against the Red Sox at Fenway Park following a road loss.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in five of their last six games against the Blue Jays following a home win.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Red Sox's last 10 home games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Blue Jays' last five games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Masataka Yoshida has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox's last 12 games against the Blue Jays at Fenway Park.
• Jarren Duran has scored at least one run in nine of his last 10 appearances with the Red Sox as favorites against AL opponents.
• Masataka Yoshida has recorded at least one Single in each of the Red Sox's last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Masataka Yoshida has recorded at least one total base in each of the Red Sox's last 12 games against the Blue Jays at Fenway Park.
• Jarren Duran has hit a home run in five of the Red Sox's last six games against AL opponents.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Red Sox's last four games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances against AL opponents.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• George Springer has hit a home run in three of the Blue Jays' last four games against the Red Sox.
• Ernie Clement has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his last eight appearances in night games.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded a Double in six of the Blue Jays' last seven road games against AL East opponents.
• Chris Bassitt has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances in night games.
• George Springer has scored at least one run in eight of the Blue Jays' last nine road games against the Red Sox.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of the Blue Jays' last 21 games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded at least one Single in six of the Blue Jays' last seven night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Blue Jays' last nine games as road underdogs against AL opponents.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 

Boston comes into this matchup after picking up a much needed win on Tuesday, but they need to string some wins together to stay in the Wild Card race. Boston is just 30-37 at home this year, while Toronto is 31-36 on the road. The Blue Jays are last in the AL East, but they have played better over the last two weeks and the offense is starting to score consistently. I don’t love either one of these pitchers in this matchup, but the Red Sox are 8-2 in Bello’s last 10 starts. Take Boston at home here.