Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction MLB Picks 8/15/24

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 71-50 this season and they have won three of their last five games. Baltimore is coming off of a series split with Washington, where they won one game and lost one game. Prior to that series, the Orioles won two out of three against the Rays, lost two out of three against the Blue Jays, and split four games with the Guardians. Baltimore is 6-4 in their last 10 games and they are in a very tight race with the Yankees. 

The Baltimore pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a .235 opponent batting average. The Orioles offense has scored 610 runs with a .256 batting average and a .319 on base percentage. Gunnar Henderson is batting .288 with 30 home runs and 71 RBI’s for the Orioles this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Nick Pivetta, who is 5-7 with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 95.1 innings pitched this year. Pivetta has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last five outings. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Zach Eflin, who is 8-7 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 129.1 innings pitched this season. Eflin has allowed five earned runs in three starts (19.1 IP) since coming over from Tampa Bay. 

Why the Orioles will beat the Red Sox

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Orioles have won five of their last six games against the Red Sox.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games against AL East opponents following a home loss.

Why the Red Sox will beat the Orioles

• The Orioles have lost five of their last six games as home favorites against the Red Sox following a home win.
• The Red Sox have won four of their last five games as underdogs against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards following a home win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last four games as road underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox's last eight night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Orioles' last 10 home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Orioles' last six home games.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Red Sox's last three night games against AL East opponents.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Gunnar Henderson has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against opponents that held a winning record.
• Colton Cowser has scored at least one run in each of the Orioles' last five games against the Red Sox.
• Anthony Santander has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Orioles' last five home games against AL East opponents.
• Cedric Mullins has recorded a Double in three of the Orioles' last four games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against opponents that held a winning record.
• Gunnar Henderson has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances with the Orioles as home favorites against AL East opponents.
• Gunnar Henderson has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 15 appearances at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against opponents that held a winning record.
• Zach Eflin has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Gunnar Henderson has hit a home run in seven of the Orioles' last 11 games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against AL opponents that held a winning record.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Story has recorded a hit in each of his last eight appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Connor Wong has scored at least one run in six of his last seven appearances after playing the previous day.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one total base in each of his last eight appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Tyler O'Neill has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances in night games against AL teams that held a winning record.
• Dominic Smith has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances with the Red Sox as road underdogs against AL opponents.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight Thursday appearances against teams that held a winning record.
• Nick Pivetta has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against AL East opponents.
• Rafael Devers has hit at least one home run in each of the Red Sox's last two road games against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction 

Baltimore comes into this game with one of the best records in the MLB, but they are in an absolute battle with the Yankees for first in the AL East. The Orioles are 35-26 at home this year, while the Red Sox are a staggering 34-24 on the road. Boston continues to play in high scoring games and they have gone over 8.5 runs in 12 straight. The Red Sox pitching has been problematic, but their offense has been very good. At this point, when I see Boston, I take the over. My Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles prediction is for this game to go over the total.